Emmanuel Macron has still not named a new prime minister. Reluctant to have his hand forced, he also procrastinates because he struggles to find the right profile… While the union of the left is about to succeed, the ongoing political recomposition is further delaying its decision.
After the refusal last week of Véronique Bedague (the Parisian), former chief of staff of Manuel Valls at Matignon, the Elysée offered the position to Valérie Rabault … who declined, according to information from BFMTV. President of the Socialist Group in the Assembly, the MP explains her decision as follows: “Retirement at 65 is not necessary and it was a marker to have a slider to the right. I am faithful to my convictions even though I understood that the line we carry, that of social democracy, is no longer the majority in the country”. Candidate for re-election in Tarn-et-Garonne, the elected official confides that “The situation on the left is extremely complex” and expresses his perplexity.
Tic tac…
This is the last episode – at this time – of a soap opera that is stretching: the re-elected president has announced that he wants to entrust Matignon to a woman, with a profile “attached to social, environmental and productive issues”and want to load the happy… named from the “ecological planning”. The rare pearl is not found for the moment: Elisabeth Borne, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, Catherine Vautrin … In addition to the refusals mentioned, several names have circulated, without any seeming to impose themselves. Like five years ago, will we finally have a man after the evocation of a woman? Emmanuel Macron needs a profile that has political weight, but not too much. Neither likely to overshadow him one day, nor insignificant…
To this search for a five-legged sheep are added tactical considerations: Emmanuel Macron had crushed the Socialist Party in 2017, and had attacked once elected to the right of government, by appointing to Matignon Edouard Philippe, from the juppéistes ranks, then Jean Castex in 2020, techno from the shadows also came from the right LR. “The Beam Works” (expression of Edouard Philippe) so again on the left?
Tactical
Reality meets fiction again: baptized with a name almost taken from the series “Black Baron”, the “New Popular Ecologist and Social Union” is in the process of giving birth. On the socialist side, it is in pain, while the Greens and the Communists have consented without too much difficulty to this plural left 2.0, forgetting their past differences and putting under the carpet of some winnable constituencies their substantive disagreements with LFI (Europe for the former, nuclear for the latter).
See also: Legislative: agreement in sight between LFI and the PCF, “blocking points” with the PS
The Mélenchonist flagship, to which the makeshift boats of the other components of the left are moored, does it really scare the Élysée? In the aftermath of the presidential election, it was unlikely that the now famous “third round” would take place. Even with this nascent union, the “Mélenchon Prime Minister” remains out of reach for the moment, and it is far from it. But there is still more than a month, and the hegemony promised to En Marche in the Assembly may turn out to be more fragile than it seems. The Élysée is closely monitoring this fine combination of circumstances, with the idea of trimming it at the margin, to isolate it in a radical repellant for the temperate left.
But who will keep the elephants?
This is an explanation of Emmanuel Macron’s desire to install a personality from the left on rue de Varenne: we barely hide it on the LREM side, the objective is to finish off the Socialist Party, definitively torn between the macronism and melenchonism. François Hollande, Anne Hidalgo, Bernard Cazeneuve, Jean-Christophe Cambadélis and other elephants may rebel, but the cut-out sale will take place, and what remains of the old party of Épinay will sink into its agony. Vassalized by rebellious France, saving a few mandates and constituencies, no doubt enough to form a group in the Assembly, living on what remains of local anchorage, he will see the most moderate rally, willy-nilly , to… Emmanuel Macron.
By leaving time, Emmanuel Macron runs the risk of giving the feeling of a power vacuum, of unwelcome hesitations, barely animated by the withdrawal of Coralie Dubost – probably “unplugged” by the executive two days after revelations of Mediapart on its agency fees. This is probably because he carefully observes the tectonics of partisan plates, to continue his work of destroying the old major government parties. With the PS in sight, therefore, but the Republicans, on their knees after the defeat of Valérie Pécresse, will not be forgotten: their turn will come, the poaching attempts are already going well, with those who have already crossed the line as touts. Rubicon (Thierry Solère, Christian Estrosi…).
Finally in (working) order?
Still nothing for Matignon? At least, the rest is moving forward: FranceInfo announced this morning that the president had examined the En Marche nominations one by one before validating them. This afternoon, the presidency informed AFP that he would be invested on Saturday at the Élysée, during a ceremony “on” et “in respect of republican principles”.
For the future, the President of the Republic will have to seem sharper if he wants to confirm his re-election with a majority of deputies in his hand: the procrastination that has been apparent in recent days illustrates that, if the ball remains in his court by one point institutionally, his political path is actually much narrower than the margin of his clear victory in the second round.