Farage Eyes “Reverse Takeover” of conservatives as Tory Divisions Deepen
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Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is openly pursuing a strategy to effectively dismantle the Conservative Party, aiming to absorb its supporters and MPs rather than engage in a conventional political pact. This ambition,revealed in recent discussions with donors,comes as the Tories grapple with internal divisions and declining poll numbers,with some within the party acknowledging a deal with Reform may be necessary for survival.
Labor has seized on the unfolding situation, framing reform and the Conservatives as ideologically aligned and accusing them of pursuing an “unholy alliance.” The prospect of a merger or formal agreement is particularly contentious within Reform, with Farage himself stating, “No deals, just a reverse takeover,” emphasizing that a pact with the existing party structure would alienate his voter base.A senior official confirmed that Farage believes a deal “as they are would cost us votes.”
Badenoch a Sticking Point, Jenrick a Potential Bridge
The possibility of a formal agreement appears largely contingent on the leadership of the Conservative Party. While a pact seems unlikely with Kemi Badenoch at the helm, senior figures within Reform are reportedly more open to discussions with robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary. Badenoch herself has ruled out any collaboration with Farage.
“The idea of a pact does not appear to be credible while Badenoch is in post,” one Reform insider stated. “Senior reform figures are much keener on Robert Jenrick as a potential partner.”
Donor Perspectives and the Inevitability of Change
Despite Farage’s public stance, some donors believe a merger remains a possibility.”I would trust Nigel’s judgment on whether to go for a merger with the Tories,” one donor told reporters, suggesting they would not be opposed to such a move. Another donor expressed confidence that a deal “will happen and should happen,” acknowledging the current fluidity of Reform’s position.
Several donors support Farage’s broader strategy of positioning Reform as the dominant force in the next election, deferring any decisions on pacts until after a contest has been fought. However, a growing number of Conservative right-wingers believe a deal with Reform is essential for the party’s survival, given Reform’s current led in the polls.
Potential Pact Structures and Tory Concerns
The potential structures of a pact range from a pre-election non-aggression agreement – where the two parties avoid competing in certain constituencies – to a post-election confidence and supply arrangement,or even a full coalition government. Discussions, according to Tory sources, are likely to remain private or occur after the election.
A shadow cabinet minister revealed that Reform is hesitant to publicly discuss a pact before the election, fearing backlash from voters who still harbor negative feelings towards the Conservative Party. “Reform wouldn’t want to talk about it before the election as so many people still don’t like Tories,” the minister said.
Jenrick, who previously ran for Conservative Party leadership, has publicly dismissed the idea of defecting to reform, stating, “It wasn’t very long ago that I was running to be leader of the Conservative party, so I’m not going anywhere.” Though, he is understood to believe a deal is inevitable, having previously vowed to “unite the right” in a leaked recording from april.
The Risk of Losing Voters to Labour
Tory strategists are increasingly concerned about the potential for voters to defect to labour simply to prevent Farage from gaining power. Analysis suggests that approximately a quarter of Conservative voters would be willing to support Labour to keep Farage out of No. 10, while a ample three-quarters would switch to Reform, with a quarter doing so enthusiastically.
The situation underscores the precarious position of the Conservative Party and the growing influence of Nigel Farage and Reform UK as the next election approaches. The coming months will be critical in determining whether the Tories can navigate these challenges and forge a path to survival, or whether Farage’s “reverse takeover” will ultimately succeed.
