the abuse of mathematics harms the complexity of life

TRIBUNE – How to convince the unvaccinated that the vaccines work… and at the same time explain to the vaccinated not to approach a non-vaccinated because the vaccines don’t work? This could be the title of the article published on April 25, 2022, in the Canadian Medical Association journal. But, to honor the work of the researchers, we are going to try to remain serious, which is not going to be easy.

The article titled Impact of population mixing between vaccinated and unvaccinated subpopulations on infectious disease dynamics: implications for SARS-CoV-2 transmission claims that the development of the vaccine has been a success, “success which can only be hampered according to the researchers by the non-vaccinated who would put the vaccinated at risk of infection if the latter mixed with them.“
From this statement, can an objective scientist not deduce that “the vaccine does not protect against contamination”?

To support their demonstration, the researchers write that they found “that as the mixture of similar people increased, attack rates in vaccinated people decreased from 15% to 10% (and increased from 62% to 79% in unvaccinated people)“.

Such a statement and its associated reasoning can only lead to understanding the usefulness of the health pass!!

Mathematical models with a scientific appearance

At first glance, mathematics is a powerful science for solving problems. Nobility of curves, beauty of equations, splendor of axioms, seem to ensure the logic of reasoning. Discipline gives confidence and impresses those who do not understand it and who, in fact, find themselves reduced to acquiescing to a logical-deductive reasoning that is proposed to them, even imposed.

However, the use of mathematics can fall into the bosom of ideologues who will use this tool to apprehend complex biological phenomena such as the appearance of a new disease, to affirm both the scientific character of their demonstration, the accuracy of their assertions and the intangible nature of the laws that flow from their reasoning.

Thus, the use of mathematics has already been widely denounced by the mathematician Vincent Pavan, who had produced a violent indictment against a study not reviewed by peers (Preprint), entitled “Estiming the burden of Sars-CoV-2 in France”. He considered himself to be bogus epidemiological science. It is however this questionable basis, which served as justification for the establishment of the health pass, after the favorable opinion of the Scientific Council.

The phenomenon is not new. Since the start of the pandemic, we have heard of mathematical models applied to complex biological phenomena. However, the notion of model can very quickly turn out to be sterile, especially when it comes to a new disease; by denying the nature of the complexity of life, a mathematical model is an empty shell.

This use of mathematics to demonstrate a hypothesis that will remain in the modeling stage, because it cannot be observed empirically, is very pernicious because it leads ordinary mortals to lose confidence in science. In the same way, if it turned out that the vaccines were not effective, mistrust and skepticism would grow among the population. Remember that science must make use of the principle of replicability in reality and that a model is only a conceptualization tool to assist in a decision. There is no need for a calibration step which leads to validating the model in real life.

Interpretations that deny all biological, biochemical and physiological phenomena

Let us take some of the statements for comment.

” Non-vaccination is expected to lead to amplification of disease transmission in unvaccinated subpopulations, but the transmissible nature of infectious diseases means that it also increases the risk for vaccinated populations, when vaccines confer imperfect immunity who recognize that collective immunity can no longer be achieved since the appearance of new variants. “

Talking about herd immunity at a time when no one believes in it is already a smile. Starting from reality, from the observation of facts, should be the basis prior to any reflection. And, when we take the case of Gibraltar, whose population is 99% vaccinated, we realize that the injections did not prevent epidemic rebounds. A simple observation of the epidemiological curve is enough to be convinced of the failure of the vaccination policy. And, unless we attribute the resumption of the epidemic to the 1% of unvaccinated people, we can only note the failure of these repeated injections.

When these mathematical researchers talk about the transmissible nature of infectious diseases, it would have been wise to provide some clarification, for example, on the differences that may exist between the variants. They could have learned from the molecular analyzes of Professor Jacques Fantini and his teams, including the analysis of the T-index (index of transmissibility) “which studies the interaction of the NTD domain of the Spike protein with the rafts of the host cell, the ‘interaction of the RBD domain with the ECA-2 receptor, and the surface electrostatic potential which reveals the rate of attraction of the virus to the target cell’. Characteristics which allow him to understand the contagiousness characteristics of the Spike proteins for each variant .

“The emergence of the highly immune-invasive Omicron variant could jeopardize some of these advances, although giving booster doses of the vaccine may restore a high level of efficacy.”

Here again, a better knowledge of molecular biology and of the existence of several kinds of antibodies, could avoid assertions that no serious scientist can ignore any longer. Indeed, since Delta, facilitating antibodies dominate. The data suggest that the balance between neutralizing and facilitating antibodies in vaccinated individuals favors neutralization for the original Wuhan strain. However, the situation is different for the Delta variant and more so since the appearance of Omicron, where neutralizing antibodies have reduced affinity for the Spike protein, while facilitating antibodies show a striking increased affinity.

“The effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in reducing disease severity and disrupting onward transmission, even when infection breaks through, likely saved many lives.”

Finally, if the authors had been aware of the work of cell biologist and microbiologist Jean-Marc Sabatier, they would certainly have been more cautious. Learning that a vaccination with multiple boosters can induce acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in vaccinated persons, sometimes called induced immunodeficiency syndrome (SIDI), gives food for thought. And, to understand that “the vaccine Spike protein, which interacts with the ACE2 receptor of the cells, will produce the same” deleterious “effects as the virus, that is to say a dysfunction of the renin-angiotensin system (with the overactivation of its AT1R receptor), a dysfunction that can lead to a disruption of the innate immunity that it controls, should challenge these researchers on the damage of a vaccination that has become obsolete since the appearance of new variants.

If the value of this study raises questions, it is because it consists of elucubrations and imprecise and dubious original hypotheses, causing their authors to lose the complexities of the human physiological system, by sinking into a maze of assertions. both ridiculous and useless.