Saudi-UAE Rivalry Intensifies as Yemen Conflict Escalates
A deepening rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has come to a head with Saudi airstrikes targeting a separatist faction in Yemen backed by the UAE, raising concerns about escalating proxy conflicts across the region. The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) expressed “serious concern” on Friday regarding the Saudi bombardment, which reportedly targeted its elite forces in Yemen’s Hadhramaut province, bordering Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Intervention Follows STC Offensive
Riyadh has not publicly commented on the strikes, but the intervention follows a three-week offensive launched by the STC to seize control of Hadhramaut and the al-Mahra province. Analysts suggest the STC likely acted with the UAE’s approval, given the strategic implications of the move. Hadhramaut, Yemen’s largest and wealthiest region, holds significant ties to Saudi Arabia, and the STC’s advance was perceived as a direct threat to the kingdom’s national security and its role in supporting the internationally recognized Yemeni government.
A Broader Regional Power Struggle
This crisis underscores the increasingly strained relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, once close allies. The tensions extend beyond Yemen, encompassing conflicts in Sudan as well. According to a risk advisory group founder, “The developments in eastern Yemen point to a quiet but consequential Riyadh—Abu Dhabi rivalry, one whose spillover effects risk intensifying proxy violence across both Yemen, Sudan and beyond.”
Sudan as a Flashpoint
The timing of the STC offensive coincided with concerns raised by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman regarding the civil war in Sudan during a visit to the White House. Some analysts believe the UAE’s actions were a deliberate message to Saudi Arabia, potentially stemming from dissatisfaction with Prince Mohammed’s focus on the role of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the Sudanese conflict. The UAE has faced scrutiny over alleged arms supplies to the RSF, which has been accused of genocide, though Abu Dhabi denies these claims. Saudi Arabia, conversely, is considered a supporter of the Sudanese Armed Forces, the RSF’s primary rival.
Shifting Alliances in Yemen
Saudi Arabia led an Arab coalition intervention in Yemen in 2015, aiming to combat the Iranian-backed Houthis after they seized Sana’a. While the UAE was initially a key partner, the two nations began backing different anti-Houthi factions, leading to internal conflicts. Abu Dhabi began withdrawing forces from Yemen in 2019, and was even accused by the Yemeni government of bombing its own forces that same year. Despite the withdrawal, the UAE continues to support the STC, the most powerful southern group, which seeks independence for the south, a status it held before Yemen’s 1990 unification.
Saudi Condemnation and Calls for De-escalation
In its strongest statement yet, Saudi Arabia condemned the STC’s unilateral military advances on Thursday, stating they were carried out without the approval of the Yemeni government or coordination with the Saudi-led coalition. “As such, these movements resulted in an unjustified escalation that harmed the interests of the Yemeni people,” the Saudi foreign ministry declared. Riyadh expressed hope that the “public interest would prevail through ending the escalation” by the STC and a withdrawal of its forces from the two provinces, while emphasizing its ongoing collaboration with the UAE and the Yemeni government to “contain the situation.” The UAE affirmed its alignment with Saudi Arabia in supporting the political process to end the war.
STC Justification and Entrenched Position
The STC justified its offensive by citing the halting of crude oil production in Hadhramaut, a key revenue source for southern authorities. The group also claimed the operation aimed to combat Islamist extremists and prevent arms smuggling to the Houthis, who control much of northern Yemen. The STC asserts it now controls Yemen’s southern provinces, a claim that has destabilized the Riyadh-backed government and challenged Saudi influence. A senior STC official stated that withdrawal is “not an option.”
Saudi Arabia’s Exit Strategy
Saudi Arabia has been seeking a way to disengage from the Yemeni conflict for several years, notably after agreeing to a truce with the Houthis in 2022. However, the escalating tensions with the UAE and the STC’s actions complicate these efforts, potentially prolonging the conflict and further destabilizing the region.
