Israel Walks a Tightrope as Iran Protests Offer Opportunity and Risk
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Israel is adopting a cautious stance as widespread protests challenge the Iranian regime, recognizing both the potential benefits of a weakened adversary and the dangers of intervention. The country, long wary of Iran’s regional ambitions, is largely remaining silent, allowing space for the United States to formulate a response while closely monitoring the evolving situation.
The protests, which began two weeks ago in response to rampant inflation, have rapidly escalated into broader demonstrations against the Iranian government, now spanning over 180 cities and towns. Tehran has attempted to attribute the unrest to external forces, specifically accusing the US and Israel of instigation.
Netanyahu’s Calculated Silence
After months of publicly issuing threats towards Iran, Israel has noticeably quieted its rhetoric. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly held multiple security consultations regarding the unfolding events, but has instructed his ministers to refrain from public commentary. This directive followed an early instance of public support for the protesters from Science Minister Gila Gamliel, who posted a photo on X (formerly Twitter) wearing a “Make Iran Great Again” cap and tagging Reza Pahlavi, son of Iran’s last monarch. The Prime Minister’s Office has since advised ministers to remain silent on at least two occasions.
At a recent government meeting, Netanyahu stated that Israel was “closely monitoring” the situation and supported the protesters’ “struggle for freedom,” but notably avoided any direct threats to Tehran or its leadership. “The overall instruction is to keep quiet,” an Israeli official told CNN. “The understanding is that if we touch, we will only interfere.”
The Risk of Intervention
Israeli officials believe that direct intervention could inadvertently provide the Iranian government with a crucial advantage: the ability to deflect blame for domestic issues and rally support by framing the protests as a foreign-backed conspiracy. “From Israel’s viewpoint, this is not the right time to intervene,” a former senior Israeli security official explained. “There’s no reason to disrupt the internal weakening of the regime or to give it a pretext to rally domestic support.”
This cautious approach is informed by recent history, with anxieties heightened by memories of Iranian ballistic missile attacks during the 12-day conflict in June. Municipalities in central Israel have proactively ensured shelters remain open as a precautionary measure, though the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have sought to downplay concerns of an imminent attack. “The protests in Iran are an internal matter,” IDF spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin stated on X on Monday. “We continue to hold ongoing situation assessments and will issue updates if there are any changes.”
Complicated Military Planning
The unrest in Iran has also introduced complications into Israel’s existing military planning. The Netanyahu government has expressed growing concern over Iran’s ballistic missile activity and alleged efforts to rearm Hezbollah in Lebanon. Operations previously under consideration to address these issues are now being reevaluated, with Israel adopting a “defensive/responsive approach,” according to one official.
“Any military operation could now give Tehran an excuse to divert attention from the unrest at home, and increase the risk of miscalculation,” the former security official cautioned.
Sima Shine, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and former head of the Research & Evaluation Division at Mossad, believes the protests have effectively paused any immediate plans for Israeli military action against Iran. She noted that Israel is naturally inclined to allow the US to take the lead, particularly given Washington’s vocal support for the protesters. However, Shine added that the situation could rapidly change should the US opt for military intervention and Iran retaliate, potentially targeting Israel as it has previously threatened.
The mayor of Ramat Gan, Carmel Shama, publicly acknowledged the uncertainty, stating on Facebook, “This time the situation depends less on us and more on what happens in Iran – or in President Trump’s mind.” He concluded with a message of support for the Iranian people, stating, “Good luck to the Iranian people. Their success in gaining freedom is also our success.”
Israel’s current strategy reflects a delicate balancing act: capitalizing on an opportunity to see a regional adversary weakened, while simultaneously avoiding actions that could inadvertently strengthen the regime and escalate regional tensions.
