Mexico Prioritizes High-Quality Oil Exports to cuba Amidst Domestic Production Decline
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Mexico is increasingly reliant on exporting its most valuable crude oil grades to Cuba, a decision that experts say comes at a significant economic cost to Mexico as its own oil production dwindles. The continued shipments, including the prized Isthmus and Olmeca varieties, highlight Cuba’s critical dependence on Mexican energy supplies and raise questions about Mexico’s energy priorities.
Cuba’s Aging Infrastructure Demands Light Crude
Cuban refineries, largely outdated, struggle to process the heavier, sulfur-rich crude oil that dominates Mexico’s overall production. This necessitates the import of lighter, easier-to-refine crude, making Mexico a crucial supplier. “To our surprise, since the begining of the six-year term of former president López Obrador, we observed that Mexico sent them its two best crude oils in terms of quality, which are the Isthmus and Olmeca,” noted a senior researcher at the University of Texas Energy Institute.
this preference for lighter crude has a tangible impact on mexico’s own refining capacity.Each barrel sent to Cuba represents a lost prospect for domestic processing or more profitable export markets, especially as Mexico’s overall oil output declines.
Pemex Faces Growing Opportunity Costs
The opportunity cost for Pemex is becoming increasingly significant. Oil production and exports are at minimum levels in recent decades, exacerbating the impact of prioritizing Cuban shipments. Between January and November 2025, Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) produced an average of 1.633 million barrels of hydrocarbons per day, with 50% being heavy crude, 24.3% light crude, and 25.6% superlight plus condensed.During this period, 52.6% of the National Refining System (SNR) refining was carried out with heavy crude oil and 47.4% with light crude oil.
The SNR, including the Dos Bocas refinery, was originally designed to process light crude. However, a shift towards heavier crude in recent years has strained the system’s efficiency. A study revealed that the proportion of heavy crude processed by the SNR rose from 34% between 2001 and 2006 to 50% in recent years.
Cuba’s Precarious Energy Situation
Cuba’s energy situation is dire.Only two of the island’s four refineries are currently operational, hampered by crude oil shortages and maintenance issues. the nation consumes between 100,000 and 110,000 barrels of oil daily but produces only around 40,000 barrels of heavy crude, primarily for thermoelectric plants. This leaves a daily deficit of approximately 60,000 barrels.
Mexico has been contributing between 20,000 and 22,000 barrels per day to fill this gap, while Venezuela previously supplied around 35,000 barrels. Though,the recent political situation in Venezuela has disrupted these supplies. Since the detention of President Nicolás Maduro, no Venezuelan tankers have reached Cuba.
“This is what worries us the most in the coming months; there will not only be impacts on electricity generation, but also a total collapse of the economy,” warned a researcher from the Energy Institute of the University of Texas.
Shifting Supply Dynamics and Potential Tariffs
President Sheinbaum has indicated that Mexico will reduce its oil shipments to Cuba in 2025 compared to 2024. Between January and September 2025, Pemex subsidiary Gasoline Wellbeing sent 17,200 barrels of crude oil and 2,000 barrels of petroleum products per day to cuba, totaling 7.9 billion pesos, according to a 6-K form filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
While current policies and laws prevent the United States from directly forcing Mexico to halt these shipments, the possibility of a 25% tariff on crude oil sales to Cuba remains a potential pressure point.
The economic consequences for Cuba without consistent oil imports from Mexico and Venezuela could be catastrophic, underscoring the island’s vulnerability and the strategic importance of these energy partnerships.
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