BOSTON, February 29, 2026
Red Sox Projected to Have MLB’s Best Starting Rotation in 2026
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A flurry of offseason moves, headlined by a deal for left-hander Ranger Suárez, has vaulted Boston to the top of the projected rankings.
- The Red Sox are projected to have the best starting rotation in Major League Baseball in 2026, with a combined fWAR of 18.3, according to FanGraphs.
- Boston’s projected improvement of +6.7 WAR is the largest in the league, a significant jump from their 12th-place ranking in 2025.
- The acquisition of Ranger Suárez, along with Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo, has bolstered a rotation already anchored by Garrett Crochet.
- The Red Sox boast impressive depth, with multiple pitchers returning from injury and promising prospects ready to contribute.
Forget the Phillies’ recent reign. According to projections from FanGraphs as of Thursday, the Boston Red Sox are poised to have the best starting rotation in Major League Baseball in 2026. The shift is dramatic, especially considering they were practically tied with the Dodgers before Boston reached an agreement on Wednesday with left-hander Ranger Suárez, one of the most coveted starters on the free agent market. Now, they stand clearly in first place.
Best Projected Rotations for 2026
According to FanGraphs (as of Thursday)
- Red Sox: 18.3 WAR
- Dodgers: 17.8 WAR
- Mariners: 16.5 WAR
- Blue Jays: 15.1 WAR
- Braves: 14.6 WAR
What’s particularly striking is the Red Sox’s ascent. They ranked only 12th in 2025 with a rotation fWAR of 11.6, trailing the leader by a substantial 10 WAR. While teams like the Phillies, Dodgers, Pirates, and Tigers occupied the top seven spots last year, Boston, alongside the Blue Jays, is expected to see the most significant improvement in their starting pitching in 2026.
Most Improved Rotations for 2026
2025 starters fWAR vs. Projected 2026 (as of Thursday)
- Red Sox: +6.7 WAR (11.6 to 18.3)
- Blue Jays: +6.6 WAR (8.5 to 15.1)
- Angels: +5.0 WAR (6.1 to 11.1)
- Rockies: +4.9 WAR (1.5 to 6.4)
- Braves: +4.5 WAR (10.1 to 14.6)
The Angels and Rockies, previously among the bottom three in fWAR, naturally have more room for growth. The Blue Jays also struggled, and the Braves faced injury challenges. However, the Red Sox already possessed a foundation, now dramatically strengthened.
Why Boston’s Outlook is So Promising
Let’s break down the key factors driving this optimistic projection:
1. The Garrett Crochet Factor
Crochet was already a force for the 2025 Red Sox, but his impact is a cornerstone of their projected success in 2026. Projections place him among the very best starting pitchers in the majors, alongside Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes, with a clear advantage over the next tier of talent.
2. Strategic Offseason Acquisitions
Beyond Crochet, Boston’s two best starters, and three of their next four, are recent additions. Sonny Gray, acquired from the Cardinals, is projected as a top-10 starter despite being 36 years old and posting a 4.28 ERA in 2025, thanks to consistently strong underlying metrics. Suárez, secured with a five-year contract, has been a reliable performer throughout his career, balancing innings with solid run prevention. Johan Oviedo, brought in from the Pirates, showed encouraging changes after returning from Tommy John surgery and could blossom with Boston’s support.
A dominant ace like Crochet is crucial, but avoiding weak links is equally important. That’s where the Red Sox faltered in 2025. While Crochet, Brayan Bello, and Lucas Giolito (now a free agent) performed well, four of their nine starters posted negative fWAR: Walker Buehler (-0.6 in 22 starts), Richard Fitts (-0.2 in 10 starts), Tanner Houck (-0.3 in nine starts), and Dustin May (-0.1 in five starts). Buehler, Fitts, and May are gone, and Houck is recovering from Tommy John surgery, expected to return late in the 2026 season.
3. Depth and Resilience
The projected “top 5” of Crochet, Gray, Suárez, Bello, and Oviedo is expected to handle 83.7% of Boston’s starting innings in 2026. While ideal, a 162-game season inevitably demands more. Most teams utilize at least eight starters annually, with the Braves leading the way with 19 in 2025, and two-thirds of teams using a dozen or more.
Depth is paramount, and the Red Sox are well-positioned. Beyond their core five, they have right-hander Kutter Crawford and left-hander Patrick Sandoval returning from injuries. Left-handers Connelly Early and Payton Tolle, both promising prospects, made impressive debuts in 2025, and Kyle Harrison, a former Giants prospect, still possesses potential at age 24.
This depth also provides flexibility for potential trades, allowing Boston to address other needs while maintaining pitching security. That’s a key reason for the optimistic outlook.
