Vilnius, January 27, 2024 — Flights in and out of Vilnius International Airport were temporarily disrupted Tuesday evening due to the recurring presence of unidentified balloons drifting across the Lithuanian border from Belarus, raising concerns about potential airspace violations and hybrid warfare tactics.
Balloon Disruptions Return, Raising Security Concerns
The latest incidents have prompted renewed scrutiny of Belarus’s activities and their impact on regional aviation safety.
- Contraband balloons originating from Belarus have repeatedly interfered with air traffic over Vilnius.
- Restrictions were imposed on airspace over Vilnius airport on January 26th, extending until 10:05 PM and again until 10:05 PM.
- Meteorological conditions are highly favorable for balloon flights from areas near Lyda, Belarus, towards Vilnius.
- Authorities believe the balloons are part of a hybrid attack, employing navigational markers characteristic of balloons.
- While current wind patterns are expected to improve air traffic conditions, the underlying issue remains unresolved.
The situation isn’t new. Meteorologist Gytis Valaika, writing on the “Orai ir klimatas Lietuvoje” Facebook page, explained that while a lull in balloon activity was observed after mid-December, conditions have recently become ideal for these incursions. “I already said to wait a little, because there were no very favorable conditions to fly ‘shipments’ from Belarus (from Gardinas / Lyda) to Vilnius since December 6th. More than a month and a half…” Valaika noted.
He cautioned against misinterpreting surface wind forecasts, emphasizing that wind direction and speed can differ significantly at altitudes of 4–6 kilometers. “The atmosphere is like a cake with many different layers of properties. Everyone should know this fact.”
Yesterday, January 26th, conditions were again conducive to balloon flights towards the capital, but Valaika suspects that challenging weather – specifically freezing rain – may have deterred launches. “However, tonight the conditions are very favorable again.” A map from no balloons lt (with thanks to programmer Vitalijus) illustrates the predicted wind direction, showing balloons originating near Lyda heading towards Vilnius.
The good news, according to Valaika, is that winds are expected to shift, improving conditions over Vilnius airport from tomorrow onward. “Just the wind was like our ally for a very long time.” However, he stressed that the problem hasn’t disappeared.
On Tuesday, airspace over Vilnius airport was restricted until 8:24 PM due to the detection of markings consistent with contraband balloons. The National Crisis Management Center (NKMC) initially stated, “Due to the hybrid attack carried out by Belarus, the detection of navigational markings characteristic of balloons in the dangerous zone, and in order to ensure the safety of civil aviation, passengers and the public, airspace over Vilnius airport was restricted until 8:05 PM.” Restrictions were later extended to 10:05 PM.
Similar disruptions caused by balloons from Belarus occurred repeatedly in October, November, and December of last year. In response to the escalating situation last October, the government declared a nationwide state of emergency. The Medininkai and Šalčininkai border checkpoints were temporarily closed, though later reopened to address the plight of Belarusian carriers stranded across the border.
Trucks registered in Lithuania and other EU countries remain stuck on the Belarusian side, prevented from leaving by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
