The Carolinas Rise as Florida and Texas see Migration Shifts
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A demographic realignment is underway in the United States, with North and South Carolina emerging as magnets for new residents while Florida and Texas experience a slowdown in domestic migration.
The Sun Belt’s previous dominance is facing a challenge. North Carolina led the nation in attracting residents from other states last year,welcoming 84,000 newcomers – a title previously held by Texas in 2024 and Florida in the two years prior. south Carolina followed closely, boasting the highest overall growth rate at 1.5%, a position Florida is projected to attain in 2024, according to recently released U.S. Census Bureau figures.
Texas and Florida: A Slowdown in Domestic Movement
Internal migration,the movement of people within the U.S., has cooled in Texas. The state saw 67,300 internal migrants arrive last year, barely surpassing South Carolina’s 66,600. This marks a important shift from the pandemic-era boom experienced by both states.
The allure of Florida, the nation’s third most populous state, has diminished, dropping to eighth place in interstate migration as more Americans look to states like Alabama. This decline is particularly striking when considering the nearly 319,000 people who moved to Florida in 2022, compared to just 22,500 in 2025.
The Push Factors: Why People Are Leaving
For some, the reasons for leaving Florida are deeply personal. Sabrina Morley and Steven Devereaux, a couple who recently relocated from the Tampa area to Spain, cited concerns about rising costs, the frequency of mass school shootings, the quality of education, and increasing political division as key factors in their decision. Expecting a daughter, they also sought a healthcare system that offered more extensive coverage.
National Trends and Future Projections
The broader national picture reveals a slowing population growth rate, in determining state population trends. This is largely due to a reduction in immigration stemming from policies enacted during the Donald Trump administration, which previously served as the primary driver of growth for many states. the Congressional Budget Office projects that, without a resurgence in immigration, the U.S.population will begin to decline within five years as deaths surpass births.
The Pandemic Boom Fades
While Texas and Florida continue to experience overall growth – 391,000 and 196,000 people respectively – the surge driven by pandemic-era migration is waning. Florida’s growth is now primarily attributed to international migration, while Texas benefits from both international migration and a higher birth rate than death rate.
“The strong internal migration seen during the pandemic has ended, especially in Florida, at the same time that immigration is reducing,” noted William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution.
demographers in both Florida and Texas have expressed some reservations about the absolute accuracy of the Census Bureau’s migration figures, acknowledging the inherent challenges in tracking these fluctuations. The Bureau relies on data from the IRS and the American Community Survey (ACS), which has a one-year lag and requires statistical projections. The university of Florida utilizes electricity customer data for its estimates,offering an option methodology.
Florida’s Challenges: Cost, Climate, and Return to Office
The dramatic decline in internal migration to Florida – from almost 319,000 in 2022 to 22,500 in 2025 – remains largely unexplained. Factors cited by Richard Doty, a research demographer at the University of Florida, include rising costs, the impact of hurricanes, and employers mandating a return to office work.
“The cost of housing,in particular,is driving young people and retirees to other states,” Doty said. “plus, insurance is more expensive in Florida than in most other states.”
Governor Ron DeSantis’ office acknowledged the pandemic-fueled influx but maintains that Florida remains an attractive place to live.
Texas, while still growing, is also facing external pressures. Lloyd Potter, the state’s demographer, emphasized that out-of-state conditions also play a role. “If there are many jobs, life is affordable and the general quality of life is good, people will be less likely to move to look for opportunities outside of a community,” Potter said.
