Coastal communities across Africa are facing a rapidly escalating crisis. Sea levels are rising at a rate four times faster than they were in the 1990s, a trend largely fueled by melting ice sheets, according to a report published December 15, 2025, in Communications Earth & Environment. It’s a stark reminder that climate change isn’t a distant threat—it’s reshaping coastlines *now*.
Africa’s Coastline: A Crisis Four Times Faster
The accelerating pace of sea-level rise threatens millions of people and vital ecosystems along the African continent.
- Sea levels off African coasts have increased at four times the rate since 2010 compared to the 1990s.
- Approximately 80% of this rise is due to added water from melting ice, a departure from the global average.
- Up to 117 million people could be impacted by a 0.3-meter sea-level rise by 2030.
- Africa contributes only about 4% of global CO₂ emissions, highlighting a disproportionate impact.
What’s happening off the African coast isn’t just about warmer water expanding—it’s about massive amounts of freshwater pouring into the ocean from melting glaciers and ice sheets. This is a critical distinction. Researchers found that roughly 80% of the sea-level rise observed in African waters is attributable to this influx of water, while thermal expansion accounts for only about 20%. Globally, these two factors contribute more equally.
A: Primarily due to the increasing contribution of meltwater from ice sheets, exceeding the global average, coupled with unique oceanographic conditions like cold-water upwelling and high salinity levels.
Over a 31-year period from 1993 to 2023, average sea level along African coasts rose approximately 10.2 centimeters, averaging 3.31 millimeters annually. While comparable to the global average, the rate of increase has dramatically accelerated since 2010. From 1993–2002, the average rise was about 0.96 millimeters per year. This climbed to 2.93 millimeters per year between 2003 and 2012, and then surged to 4.34 millimeters per year from 2013–2023.
The report, titled “Accelerating sea level rise in Africa and its large marine ecosystems since the 1990s,” analyzed data collected using satellite altimetry. Researchers from African and Western countries collaborated on the study, emphasizing the need for international cooperation to address the issue.
Regional Variations and Vulnerable Areas
The impact of rising sea levels isn’t uniform across the continent. The Red Sea and the Guinea Current, a warm current flowing along West Africa’s coast, are experiencing the steepest increases. Conversely, the Mediterranean region has seen comparatively smaller rises, due to increasing salinity which makes the water denser.
Roughly 250 million people live in Africa’s coastal zones, and their livelihoods are increasingly at risk. Recurring floods, coastal erosion, biodiversity loss, damage to infrastructure, displacement of communities, and saltwater intrusion into freshwater sources are all becoming more frequent and severe. Cities like Lagos, Alexandria, and Dar es Salaam are particularly vulnerable.
In Lagos, Nigeria, land subsidence is exacerbating the problem, potentially doubling the frequency of floods by 2050 and putting over 12 million residents in harm’s way. Projections indicate that a 0.3-meter sea-level rise could impact up to 117 million Africans by 2030. Rapid urbanization and inadequate coastal planning are compounding these risks.
Despite contributing only around 4% of global carbon dioxide emissions, Africa is bearing a disproportionate burden of climate change impacts. The report argues that current adaptation strategies may be insufficient without substantial increases in international climate finance and technology transfer to support local efforts.
The accelerating rate of sea-level rise—from less than 1 millimeter per year in the 1990s to over 4.3 millimeters per year recently—signals a critical need for urgent action and increased global support.
