New York, February 10, 2026 — XRP is currently trading in a precarious spot, hovering between $1.40 and $1.45 after a significant pullback from recent highs. The digital asset has shed around 32 percent of its value over the past month, with a 12 percent drop in just the last week, leaving investors wondering if the recent bounce has run its course.
XRP’s Tightrope Walk: Macro Forces and On-Chain Signals
A look at the factors influencing XRP’s price, from Federal Reserve policy to whale activity.
- XRP faces resistance between $1.50 and $1.55, a key level to watch for a potential reversal.
- Macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly surrounding the Federal Reserve, is heavily influencing XRP’s short-term movements.
- On-chain data reveals increasing selling pressure, with more XRP flowing to exchanges and investors realizing losses.
- Russia’s recent bill potentially legalizing XRP hasn’t yet translated into significant price action.
The broader market is bracing for key economic data releases this week, with jobs and inflation numbers poised to trigger volatility across the cryptocurrency landscape. Softer inflation readings could pave the way for earlier interest rate cuts, boosting risk assets like XRP, while persistent inflation could prolong restrictive monetary policy. Adding another layer of complexity, the nomination of Kevin Warsh to chair the Federal Reserve by former President Trump has injected further uncertainty into the rate path.
Meanwhile, Russia has introduced legislation that, in theory, legalizes XRP and broader crypto access for its population of roughly 146 million people. However, the market has largely shrugged off this development, with XRP remaining rangebound and no discernible influx of capital from the region. This suggests that actual flows and positioning are currently outweighing positive headlines.
On-Chain Stress Signals
Digging into the on-chain data, the picture isn’t particularly encouraging. The 30-day moving average of XRP exchange inflows surged from approximately 6.6 million tokens at the beginning of February to a peak near 10.7 million within the first week – a 62 percent increase. This movement of coins from cold storage to exchanges is often a precursor to selling, as exchanges provide the deepest liquidity and fastest execution speeds.
Furthermore, the 7-day Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has slipped from around 1.16 in mid-2025 to approximately 0.96. This indicates that, on average, market participants are now realizing losses when they sell. Historically, this combination of increased exchange inflows and a SOPR below 1 often appears during the later stages of a downtrend, signaling a clearing of weak hands before a potential base forms.
What does a Spent Output Profit Ratio below 1 mean for XRP investors? It suggests that more people are selling at a loss than at a profit, indicating potential capitulation and a possible bottoming process.
Technical Levels to Watch
From a technical perspective, XRP-USD’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently dipped towards 17, a deeply oversold reading that statistically supports a technical rebound. However, the $1.50–$1.55 range remains a critical hurdle. This level previously capped an advance on February 6 and is now a focal point for many traders.
A prevailing view among flow-based traders is that a recovery into the $1.50–$1.55 area would present an attractive opportunity to establish short positions, anticipating a downside move back towards $1.15. The implied drawdown from that zone is roughly 25 percent, mirroring the potential upside for those betting against the resistance.
On the weekly timeframe, XRP-USD continues to bear the scars of its failed attempt to sustain the 2025 peak, exhibiting a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The recent rebound from near $1.10 hasn’t altered this trend, remaining a counter-move within a broader decline. Support levels to watch below the current price include $1.15, the psychological $1.00 level, and deeper zones near $0.75 and $0.50, where buying interest has emerged in past cycles.
Ripple’s Institutional Push
Away from the immediate price action, Ripple continues to build infrastructure geared towards institutional adoption. Ripple Custody has partnered with Figment to provide staking for Ethereum and Solana, offering a non-custodial infrastructure accessible to banks and custodians. A collaboration with Securosys integrates CyberVault Hardware Security Modules and CloudHSM into Ripple’s custody stack, enhancing key management solutions for financial institutions.
However, on-chain usage metrics remain subdued. The total value locked (TVL) in XRPL’s DeFi ecosystem has decreased from roughly $80 million at the start of January to approximately $49.6 million currently, while stablecoin capitalization on XRPL sits near $415.85 million and is growing only gradually. This suggests that the current price is still largely driven by speculative flows rather than substantial institutional volume.
XRP Community Day 2026 is shaping up to be a key narrative catalyst, focusing on programmability, smart extensions, and enhanced contract functionality on the XRP Ledger. The exploration of zero-knowledge proof technology aims to add privacy and scalability, crucial for banks and regulated platforms. Wrapped XRP, allowing XRP to move into ecosystems like Solana, is also a key focus.
While some optimistic roadmaps envision XRP reaching four-digit and even five-digit pricing, these scenarios rely on widespread institutional adoption, expanding liquidity, and full integration into cross-border settlements. Such a transformation would require a fundamental re-wiring of the global financial system.
The Path Forward
Over the next few weeks, XRP’s behavior around the $1.50–$1.55 level will be crucial. A daily close above $1.55, backed by higher volume and slowing exchange inflows, could turn this resistance into support. Conversely, repeated rejections with strong sell volume would reinforce the downtrend and likely lead to a retest of $1.15, potentially even $1.00.
Looking ahead one to three months, a trading range between roughly $1.10 and $1.80 seems probable, with a high likelihood of revisiting $1.15 if the $1.50–$1.55 corridor holds. Over the next six to twelve months, assuming a stable macroeconomic environment and progress on the XRPL institutional roadmap, a realistic optimistic scenario points to a price band between $3.50 and $5.00.
Currently, XRP-USD doesn’t present an obvious bargain at around $1.40–$1.45. The weekly trend remains down, on-chain indicators point to selling pressure, and whales are active near a key resistance level. However, the infrastructure story around custody, staking, and institutional DeFi is strengthening. A ‘Hold’ rating with a short-term bias towards further pressure, as long as the $1.50–$1.55 band caps advances, appears prudent.
