SANTIAGO, February 29, 2024 — Chilean researchers have developed a groundbreaking system capable of predicting the intensity of earthquakes in real time, offering a potentially life-saving advancement in disaster preparedness. The new technology moves beyond simply detecting an earthquake to forecasting the level of shaking expected in different areas, a crucial distinction for effective response.
A New Level of Earthquake Prediction
This innovative system calculates earthquake intensity as it happens, providing critical data seconds before strong shaking arrives.
- The system, dubbed HEWFERS (Hybrid Earthquake Early Warning Framework for Estimating Response Spectra), analyzes the first 10 seconds of seismic activity.
- Unlike traditional systems that focus on magnitude, HEWFERS predicts intensity – the actual force felt on the ground and structures.
- Researchers utilized data from nearly 1,900 earthquakes recorded in Japan and Chile to train the model.
- The technology could allow for automated responses like slowing trains or shutting down critical infrastructure.
The model was created by Rodrigo Astroza, from the Faculty of Engineering and Applied Sciences of the University of the Andes (Uandes); Sergio Ruiz, a geophysicist and seismic engineer at the University of Chile; and Jawad Fayaz, a computer scientist at the University of Exeter (United Kingdom). It’s an early warning system that, from the first seconds of an earthquake’s movement, can calculate the intensity of the earthquake in real time at a regional level.
How HEWFERS Works
According to Astroza, the system works by analyzing the initial seismic waves captured by accelerographic stations. “This information is used to predict the seismic intensity of the entire earthquake (whose duration can be 1 minute or more) at that same station and at other locations where the waves have not yet reached, but in which there was previously a model that correlated its characteristics with those of station 1 (this information is available from previous earthquakes),” Astroza explained.
If additional accelerographic stations are available in those locations, the model incorporates their initial readings to further refine its predictions. “This way, the model provides a very powerful tool to predict the seismic intensity of an earthquake for various areas of a territory, which is very important for areas with earthquakes generated by subduction mechanisms (which are predominant in Chile), since these events generate effects in large areas of the territory,” he added.
The team trained HEWFERS using data collected in Japan between 1996 and 2022, leveraging the country’s extensive network of accelerographic stations. This data comprised approximately 14,000 seismic records from 1,860 different earthquakes. They are also incorporating data from the National Seismological Center (CSN) in Chile.
Intensity vs. Magnitude: What’s the Difference?
Current earthquake warning systems typically report magnitude and location. However, this new system focuses on predicting seismic intensity, which is a distinct measurement. According to the CSN, magnitude reflects the energy released during an earthquake, while intensity measures the effects of the shaking on the land, structures, and living beings.
“The information in our system is vital for decision making, since it provides data that is directly related to the stress – or ‘force’ – with which the earthquake will reach different locations throughout a territory,” Astroza stated. The system can pinpoint which structures and systems are most vulnerable to damage.
“Having the information regarding the intensity that an earthquake will have in a large geographical area 30 or 40 seconds in advance allows crucial decisions to be made, for example, associated with evacuations of people or the control and paralysis of processes in which seismic loads are critical and risky – trains, gas, chemical plants and others,” the expert explained. “These decisions not only save lives and protect infrastructure, but they also significantly reduce the economic impact, which demonstrates the indispensable role of technological solutions to combat the seismic challenge.”
