Farrer Byelection Looms as Leadership Test for Angus Taylor, Opportunity for Independent Michelle Milthorpe
The upcoming byelection in the Australian electorate of Farrer presents a crucial test for newly appointed Liberal leader Angus Taylor and a significant opportunity for independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe, who narrowly missed victory in the 2023 federal election.
Dust-covered campaign signs – orange emu corflutes – are resurfacing across the electorate in south-western New South Wales, signaling the rapid approach of a contest triggered by the unexpected resignation of long-serving Liberal MP Sussan Ley. The byelection, expected to coincide with the May federal budget, will pit Milthorpe against a Liberal candidate, with the added complication of a likely challenge from One Nation.
Ley’s departure, fueled by internal Liberal party divisions, has opened the door for Milthorpe, who ran a strong second in May, reducing the Liberal margin to 6.2%. She wasted no time in responding to the news, stating the electorate – encompassing Albury, Deniliquin, and Griffith – “deserved better than being a second-thought in party politics.” While acknowledging Ley’s 24-year career, Milthorpe pledged a renewed focus on local concerns.
“Our communities deserve a reliable and relatable representative; someone who listens, understands our regional context, and is prepared to do the work in Canberra to make policy better reflect life in rural and regional Australia,” Milthorpe said. She criticized the Coalition for being “consumed by its own internal contests at a time when people are crying out for leadership,” arguing that Farrer’s future should not be an “afterthought to party politics.”
The contest is expected to be particularly fraught, according to election analyst Antony Green. He notes that the Nationals, traditionally respecting a Coalition agreement not to contest Farrer while Ley held the seat, will almost certainly field a candidate now that the position is vacant. “The last few weeks of Coalition disputes and Liberal leadership rumours could well drag on ahead of a Farrer byelection,” Green wrote on his blog.
The potential for dysfunction within the conservative parties echoes the 2023 Aston byelection, where the Liberals lost a previously safe seat following Alan Tudge’s retirement. A similar outcome in Farrer would be particularly damaging given Labor’s decisive victory in the 2025 federal election. Green predicts Labor will likely abstain from actively contesting the seat, anticipating a “conservative slugfest” instead.
Milthorpe’s campaign is already well underway, with consistent engagement on social media documenting her attendance at community events, including citizenship ceremonies and the Deni ute muster. She is also actively campaigning on the contentious issue of the Albury-Wodonga hospital redevelopment.
Financially, Milthorpe is well-positioned, having raised $283,000 during the last election cycle, including significant contributions from Climate 200 ($170,000) and the Regional Voices fund ($30,000). She confirmed she would again accept donations from supporters of climate action.
Addressing the region’s vulnerability to climate change, Milthorpe emphasized the need for “real consultation, a fair and practical transition, grid stability, renewable energy benefits that flow to communities, support for local manufacturing, and no new fossil fuel projects that ignore long-term realities.” She asserted that the conversation around climate action has evolved beyond the commitments made under the Paris Agreement. “As a rural, remote and regional electorate, we feel the burden of floods, fires and droughts first – and hardest,” she stated.
This will be the fifth byelection in three years, and the second resulting from the retirement of a former Liberal leader, following Scott Morrison’s departure from Cook in 2024. The outcome in Farrer will not only test Taylor’s leadership but also his recent shift towards a more conservative stance on immigration, a space already claimed by One Nation, whose leader Pauline Hanson has confirmed her party will contest the seat.
Milthorpe remains confident, asserting that the last election demonstrated Farrer is “no longer ‘safe’,” with “swings were recorded in almost every booth across the electorate.” She views the byelection as “our opportunity to finish what we started.”
