DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — A proposed nuclear deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia could allow the kingdom to enrich uranium within its borders, raising concerns among arms control experts about potential proliferation risks as tensions remain high with Iran. Congressional documents and analysis from the Arms Control Association suggest the possibility of Saudi Arabia acquiring the capability, a move that could alter the balance of power in the Middle East.
The potential for uranium enrichment within Saudi Arabia comes as the U.S. Continues negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, talks that recently resumed in Geneva. The Biden and Trump administrations have both sought a nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia, aiming to share American technology. However, experts warn that allowing Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium could open a pathway to a potential weapons program, particularly given statements from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman suggesting he might pursue such a path if Iran were to develop a nuclear weapon.
The situation is further complicated by a recently signed mutual defense pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Last year, following an Israeli attack on Qatar targeting Hamas officials, Pakistan’s defense minister indicated that the nation’s nuclear program “will be made available” to Saudi Arabia if needed, a statement widely interpreted as a warning to Israel, which is believed to be the only nuclear-armed state in the region. READ MORE: Iran says it closed Strait of Hormuz for live fire drills as it held nuclear talks with U.S.
“Nuclear cooperation can be a positive mechanism for upholding nonproliferation norms and increasing transparency, but the devil is in the details,” said Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Washington-based Arms Control Association. She added that the documents reviewed raise “concerns that the Trump administration has not carefully considered the proliferation risks posed by its proposed nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia or the precedent this agreement may set.”
Congressional Documents Detail Proposed Agreement
A congressional document reviewed by the Associated Press indicates the Trump administration aimed to reach 20 nuclear business deals globally, with Saudi Arabia being a key target. The potential deal with Saudi Arabia could be worth billions of dollars, according to the document, and is framed as a way to bolster U.S. National security interests and counter the influence of competitors like China, France, Russia, and South Korea in the nuclear energy sector.
The proposed agreement would involve both the U.S. And Saudi Arabia entering into safeguard agreements with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). These agreements would include oversight of areas considered most sensitive in terms of proliferation risk, including uranium enrichment, fuel fabrication, and reprocessing. Davenport explained that this suggests Saudi Arabia could gain access to uranium enrichment technology or capabilities, potentially even from the United States, even with restrictions in place.
“Even with restrictions and limits, it seems likely that Saudi Arabia will have a path to some type of uranium enrichment or access to knowledge about enrichment,” Davenport wrote.
Saudi Arabia is a member state of the IAEA, which promotes peaceful nuclear perform while also conducting inspections to ensure nations are not developing clandestine nuclear weapons programs. The IAEA stated Friday that it “maintains regular contact with both parties and is able to apply verification measures in connection with bilateral cooperation agreements.” The agency added it would consult with both countries and address any requests for verification measures in accordance with established procedures.
While enrichment itself isn’t a direct path to creating a nuclear weapon – requiring additional steps like mastering the use of synchronized high explosives – it does represent a crucial step toward weaponization, a concern that has long fueled Western anxieties regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
UAE as a Comparison Point
The United Arab Emirates, a neighboring country to Saudi Arabia, serves as a contrasting example. The UAE signed a “123 agreement” with the U.S. To build its Barakah nuclear power plant with assistance from South Korea, but notably did *not* pursue uranium enrichment. Nonproliferation experts have consistently pointed to the UAE’s approach as a “gold standard” for nations seeking to develop nuclear power.
Rising Tensions with Iran Fuel the Debate
The push for a Saudi-U.S. Nuclear deal is occurring against a backdrop of heightened tensions with Iran. Former President Trump has threatened military action against Iran if it does not reach an agreement regarding its nuclear program. This military buildup follows widespread protests in Iran, which were met with a violent crackdown by the government resulting in thousands of deaths and tens of thousands of detentions.
Iran maintains its nuclear enrichment program is for peaceful purposes. However, Western nations and the IAEA assert that Iran had an organized military nuclear program until 2003. Currently, Iran is enriching uranium to 60% purity, a level close to the 90% required for weapons-grade material, making it the only country globally to do so without a declared weapons program. Iranian officials have increasingly suggested they could seek a nuclear weapon if tensions with the U.S. Continue to escalate.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has publicly stated that if Iran were to obtain a nuclear weapon, “we will have to obtain one.”
The potential for Saudi Arabia to develop its own enrichment capabilities, coupled with its existing security relationship with Pakistan, adds another layer of complexity to the already volatile situation in the Middle East. The next step in the process will be closely watched by international observers, particularly as negotiations with Iran continue and the risk of further escalation remains a significant concern.
The situation remains fluid, and further developments in both the U.S.-Saudi negotiations and the broader Iran nuclear talks are expected in the coming weeks. Readers can find updates on the IAEA’s website here and follow reporting from the Associated Press for ongoing coverage.
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