From raids to spy satellites, the White House evaluates the offensive. The aircraft carrier “Reagan”. The no to the use of bases in the Persian Gulf
Joe Biden used words similar to those of his predecessors, forced to respond to bloody attacks. “We will hunt you down and you will pay for it,” he promised the perpetrators of the Kabul massacre. A solemn commitment to the nation that becomes more difficult because it will not be able to count on the Afghan rear. Several scenarios are being studied for a White House under fire.
I raid
Raids are the quick reaction, they send a signal, but they don’t always guarantee results. The enemy is elusive, you have to find him, he is not an army with barracks and heavy vehicles. In the Indian Ocean, near the coast of Pakistan, the aircraft carrier “Reagan” is still ready. The presence was planned in view of the withdrawal, to give protection. Now it could serve for strikes against the shelters of the Islamic State-Khorasan (Is-K), perhaps in tandem with raids by strategic bombers. Together with already designated targets, they could arrive blown by the Taliban or some local ally. Targeted raids to eliminate militants, something that has already happened since the movement raised its black flag in 2015. The tactic of the beheading of the “snake” – the killing of leaders – made it possible to kill important leaders, however the head has reformed. Because that’s what happens. Spectacular was the use of the super-bomb in April 2017 when the GBU-43 / B was dropped from a transport plane which made it “roll” from the tailgate. A hammer blow on a tunnel / cave system in Achin district, Nangarhar province, where the Caliphate established one of its strongholds. A weapon actually used to convey a message even to different adversaries – North Korea, Iran, all with bunkers – and tested in the Afghan mountains.
L’intelligence
Months ago the CIA, as the departure approached, had warned of the serious obstacles to its activity. Without adequate coverage it would have been difficult to act on the territory. And then the official sources had offered an alternative – more political than real -, that “beyond the horizon”. With military operations conducted from bases in the region, particularly in the Persian Gulf and neighboring countries. Solution criticized by experts as there are no favorable conditions, the installations are far from Afghanistan and the neighboring states have immediately denied the leads. Perhaps, now under the threat of attacks, they could make some concessions, but for the moment the US must find other hooks. On several levels: the old informers who are now “behind the lines”, new sources exploiting the confusion of this phase, moles capable of acting both in the city and in the rural areas where the mujahideen have hiding places. Then the interceptions, the spy flights, the satellites. The agents would have discovered that the attack at the airport was imminent after having overheard conversations between the extremists. It wasn’t enough. The suicide bomber was able to infiltrate and the security of the Taliban failed. And here opens the scenario cherished by many: Washington will eventually have to find a modus vivendi with the mullahs in a counter-terrorism activity. The former enemy becomes a partner because there is a more “bad” enemy, the Is-K. True. But the Taliban themselves, after the victory, freed many rival militants and killed one of the leaders who was detained. The massacre at the airport could shorten distances. The CIA director, William Burns, has already met with Mullah Baradar and the US air force in the not too distant past has lent a hand by targeting Islamic State nuclei while they were engaged in firefights with the Taliban. One who knows, the former director Leon Panetta, has predicted a future return of US special forces on the Afghan front. The elders of the trade know that without the human component, the search for intelligence remains halfway. We’ll see.
The threats
The search for an answer is accompanied by new threats, defined by the upcoming generals. Followers of the Caliph can detonate car bombs, conduct attacks, target with rockets. There is always a fear of using portable surface-to-air missiles. But there is a risk of the kidnapping of Westerners who have been stranded. According to Politico.com, the Pentagon has passed a list of American citizens to the new Afghan leaders in the hope that they can find protection. A move considered by many to be dangerous. You have no guarantees, they could be “sold” to kidnappers for spectacular blackmail, with the corollary of videos, executions. Is-Khorasan is expanding, he captures the picture, he is well prepared for the key moment. The focus of the fight is regional, but think big and become synonymous with success. It would not be strange if he inspired – without having direct contact – violent gestures in some European city. The perpetrator could dedicate the action to the mujahideen of Afghanistan. In the long history of terrorism there have been key episodes linked to US interventions. The massacre of French marines and military wiped out by a truck bomb in Beirut in 83. The 1993 Battle of Mogadishu with the selected units trapped. Now the kamikaze of Kabul with murdered civilians and soldiers is added to underline a gloomy epilogue with a lost superpower.
August 28, 2021 (change August 28, 2021 | 02:12)
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