The stinging defeat of Republican Ed Gillespie in Virginia’s gubernatorial race has sparked a familiar debate within the conservative movement: what went wrong? While Ralph Northam’s victory was widely predicted, the reaction from prominent voices on the right suggests a reluctance to fully confront the factors contributing to the loss, with many pointing fingers at everything from the Gillespie campaign’s strategy to demographic shifts and even past Republican leadership. The core of the disagreement centers on whether Gillespie’s failure stemmed from a rejection of Donald Trump’s brand of populism, or simply a consequence of Virginia’s evolving political landscape.
Immediately following the results, a wave of criticism targeted Gillespie for not fully embracing the former president. Ann Coulter, a vocal supporter of Trump, took to Twitter, blaming Gillespie’s association with figures like George W. Bush and Haley Barbour for the outcome. “Hey @EdWGillespie! If your pals, George Bush & Haley Barbour, had been a little less enthusiastic about open borders, you would have won tonight,” she tweeted on November 8, 2017.
Hey @EdWGillespie! If your pals, George Bush & Haley Barbour, had been a little less enthusiastic about open borders, you would have won tonight.
— Ann Coulter (@AnnCoulter) November 8, 2017
Coulter doubled down, warning that a failure by President Trump to follow through on his campaign promises regarding immigration could lead to similar defeats nationwide. “If @realDonaldTrump doesn’t keep his campaign promise to build a wall & deport illegals, what happened to VA will happen to the entire country,” she wrote in a subsequent tweet.
If @realDonaldTrump doesn’t keep his campaign promise to build a wall & deport illegals, what happened to VA will happen to the entire country.
— Ann Coulter (@AnnCoulter) November 8, 2017
This sentiment was echoed by Laura Ingraham, who on her display, argued that Gillespie “never jumped on board the Trump train,” characterizing him as an establishment figure unable to connect with the populist base. Slate reported on her commentary the night of the election.
A Rejection of the Establishment or a Shifting Electorate?
The narrative of a failed embrace of Trumpism was further amplified by Breitbart News, with Sean Moran asserting that Gillespie’s loss represented “a repudiation of the Republican establishment.” According to Breitbart, Gillespie lost by a wider margin than both Donald Trump and Ken Cuccinelli in previous Virginia elections. Still, other conservative commentators offered a different explanation, focusing on the state’s changing demographics.
Scott Greer of The Daily Caller argued that Virginia’s transformation into a reliably blue state was inevitable, regardless of Trump’s influence. “Tuesday night’s slaughter is more of a representation of Virginia’s rapidly changing demographics have made it a solid blue state — regardless of Trump,” Greer wrote. Doug Schoen, a Fox News contributor, similarly attributed Gillespie’s defeat to increased minority turnout for Northam, while acknowledging that Trump was a “major negative” for the Republican candidate. Fox News published Schoen’s analysis prior to the election results.
The Republican Response
Within the Republican party itself, the response was more measured. Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, when asked about the Virginia results, downplayed their significance, stating, “It doesn’t change my reading of the current moment.” He expressed confidence that tax reform would ultimately benefit the party politically. The Plum Line on Twitter reported on Ryan’s comments.
A source close to the Trump administration took a similar tack, suggesting that Gillespie’s loss, along with the defeat of Republican Kim Guadagno in New Jersey, were attributable to “local dynamics” and the fact that both states had not voted for Trump in the 2016 presidential election. “These are blue states that the president did not win last year. What we have is not about the president,” the source told The Washington Examiner.
The Broader Implications for the GOP
The differing interpretations of the Virginia results highlight a deeper struggle within the Republican party to define its identity in the age of Trump. The election served as a test case for whether the party could succeed by appealing to a more traditional conservative base, or if embracing Trump’s populist message was essential for victory. Gillespie attempted a delicate balancing act, courting both establishment Republicans and Trump supporters, but ultimately failed to galvanize either group sufficiently.
The focus on demographics, while partially accurate, risks obscuring the need for the GOP to adapt to a changing electorate. Virginia’s increasing diversity is a long-term trend, and Republicans will need to develop strategies to appeal to minority voters if they hope to remain competitive in the state. However, simply acknowledging demographic shifts isn’t enough; the party must also address the underlying issues that motivate these voters and offer compelling alternatives to the Democratic platform.
The debate over Gillespie’s loss also underscores the challenges of navigating the post-Trump political landscape. While Trump remains a powerful force within the Republican party, his polarizing rhetoric and unconventional style may not be universally appealing. The party must determine whether to continue to embrace Trumpism, or to chart a new course that appeals to a broader range of voters. The results in Virginia suggest that a continued reliance on Trump’s brand of populism may not be a winning strategy in all elections.
Looking ahead, the focus will shift to the 2018 midterm elections, where Republicans will be defending a number of vulnerable seats. The lessons learned from Virginia will undoubtedly shape the party’s strategy in those races. The next key date for the GOP is December 12th, when the special election in Alabama will be held, offering another crucial test of the party’s direction. The outcome will likely fuel further debate about the future of the Republican party and its ability to connect with voters in a rapidly changing political environment.
What are your thoughts on the Virginia election results and the future of the Republican party? Share your comments below.
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