Islamabad is navigating a precarious diplomatic path as escalating tensions between Israel and Iran cast a long shadow over its efforts to mediate peace talks. Intensifying Israeli strikes, including recent attacks on Iranian steel plants and nuclear sites, coupled with a growing US military presence in the Gulf, are complicating Pakistan’s bid to host negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The situation presents a significant challenge to Pakistan’s carefully cultivated position as a neutral arbiter, a role bolstered by its relatively stable relationship with both nations.
Pakistan’s attempt at high-wire diplomacy rests on its unique standing in the region. Unlike many other potential mediators, Pakistan is not directly involved in the Middle East conflict and does not host any US military bases, avoiding the historical baggage that could hinder impartial negotiations. This neutrality, combined with the influence of its de facto leader, military chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, within the US administration, and improved ties with Tehran over the past two years, has positioned Islamabad as a potentially valuable facilitator.
Both the United States and Iran have, according to Pakistani officials, signaled a willingness to engage in talks, albeit tentatively. Whereas, the widening conflict, deep-seated mistrust, and starkly divergent positions between the two sides present formidable obstacles. A primary concern for Pakistani diplomats is the potential for Israel to undermine the process through further escalatory actions. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, stated that recent Israeli strikes on civilian infrastructure contradict President Donald Trump’s stated pause in attacks intended to create space for diplomacy, according to reports.
Pakistani officials believe attacks targeting non-military and non-regime affiliated sites are particularly damaging to prospects for dialogue. Iran’s core demand, as articulated by former Pakistani ambassador to the US, Maleeha Lodhi, is a guarantee against future attacks from both the US and Israel, and a definitive conclude to the current conflict. “The toughest part is believing Trump’s word. He is not a rational player. He’s completely whimsical,” Lodhi said, reflecting a widespread skepticism within Pakistani diplomatic circles regarding the US president’s reliability.
The Strait of Hormuz and Competing Proposals
One potential sticking point in negotiations centers on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil and gas shipments. Iran has been asserting greater control over the strait during the current conflict, and some reports suggest Tehran may seek to retain that control as part of any agreement. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has deemed this unacceptable, though President Trump has, at times, floated the idea of joint US-Iranian administration of the strait, according to multiple news reports.
So far, Pakistan has been acting as a conduit for proposals between the two sides, which officials describe as initially uncompromising. However, they maintain that a compromise is possible if both Iran and the US demonstrate genuine willingness to negotiate. The current situation is further complicated by the evolving geopolitical landscape in the region.
A New Regional Alignment
Pakistan’s diplomatic push received a boost on Saturday with a phone call between Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. This followed an announcement that the foreign ministers of Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan will convene in Islamabad on Sunday and Monday to discuss ways to de-escalate the conflict. These four nations are increasingly viewed as a new alignment within the Muslim world, possessing significant combined military strength – including nuclear capabilities – and Saudi Arabia’s substantial financial resources.
However, this emerging alliance is not without internal tensions. Reports indicate that Saudi Arabian officials, despite being targeted by Iran, have privately expressed a desire for continued bombardment of Iranian targets, potentially complicating the mediation efforts. This divergence in views highlights the delicate balancing act Pakistan faces in navigating the interests of its regional partners.
Indirect Talks and US Troop Buildup
Islamabad anticipates that any negotiations will be conducted indirectly, with Pakistani officials acting as intermediaries between US and Iranian delegations housed in separate locations. Tehran has consistently refused direct, face-to-face talks with US representatives. Pakistan’s ability to facilitate these discussions is underpinned by its nuclear arsenal and robust military, which could provide security for the venue, and its air force, which could offer escort services for Iranian officials traveling to the talks.
However, the prospect of meaningful negotiations is increasingly challenged by escalating military actions. Iran has accused Washington of deception, citing previous instances of attacks during ongoing talks. The reported buildup of US troops in the region – with the Pentagon considering sending an additional 10,000 soldiers to supplement the 7,000 already en route – raises concerns that a military solution may be prioritized over diplomacy.
To foster trust, Pakistan proposed that Vice President JD Vance represent the US in the talks, a suggestion reportedly well-received by Iran. Tehran has expressed distrust of previous US interlocutors, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while Vance is perceived as more skeptical of military intervention. Vance recently stated on the “Benny Show” podcast that the US had achieved “most or all of its military objectives,” but added that the president intends to “keep at it for a little while longer to ensure that once we leave, we don’t have to do this again for a very, very long time.”
For Pakistan, the stakes are particularly high. A defense agreement signed with Saudi Arabia last year could obligate Islamabad to enter the conflict on Riyadh’s side. Given its long border with Iran and its large Shia Muslim population – the second largest in the world after Iran – Pakistan is determined to avoid being drawn into a regional war. The success of Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts will hinge on navigating these complex geopolitical currents and convincing all parties to prioritize dialogue over further escalation.
The next key development to watch will be the outcome of the meeting between the foreign ministers of Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan in Islamabad. Their discussions, scheduled for Sunday and Monday, will be crucial in shaping a unified approach to de-escalation and potentially paving the way for more formal negotiations.
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