GRAPEVINE, TEXAS – The annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) concluded Sunday with a palpable unease hanging over the proceedings, a stark contrast to the usual displays of optimism. This year, the shadow of a potential escalation in the conflict with Iran loomed large, exposing fissures within the “MAGA” movement as its figurehead, Donald Trump, remained absent. The former president’s decision to forgo the event – a staple of his political calendar for a decade – fueled speculation and anxiety among attendees grappling with a president who once promised to end “forever wars” now seemingly on the brink of a ground invasion.
The conference, typically a showcase of conservative unity, instead became a forum for debate and, at times, outright disagreement about the direction of Trump’s foreign policy. Although many attendees expressed unwavering support for the former president, a current of apprehension ran through the cavernous ballroom as speakers and participants wrestled with the implications of a wider conflict in the Middle East. The situation is further complicated by rising gas prices and a generally unfavorable political climate for Republicans heading into the midterm elections.
A Movement Divided on War
Erik Prince, the controversial founder of the Blackwater security firm, offered a stark warning during a panel discussion. He cautioned that a ground invasion of Iran, should Trump order it, could quickly lead to a disastrous outcome. “You will notice imagery of burning American warships in the next couple of weeks,” Prince predicted, adding, “And I don’t think people are really prepared for that.” His assessment painted a grim picture, sharply contrasting with the more hawkish rhetoric from some quarters.
Former Navy SEAL Jason Redman, seated alongside Prince, presented a different perspective, arguing for continued resolve. “The American people have to understand we can’t stop now that we’ve started,” he stated, acknowledging the personal stakes with a poignant remark: “I have my first grandchild coming. I don’t want my grandchild to have to fight Iran in 20 years.” This sentiment, reflecting a desire to secure a stable future, resonated with many in the audience.
Veteran Trump administration diplomat Ric Grenell attempted to steer the conversation toward a more optimistic outlook, praising the president’s actions as a necessary correction. “We’re going to look back in a couple of months and say, thank God that we fixed this problem, the Iranian regime is not a threat any longer,” Grenell asserted. However, his assessment was met with skepticism by some, including former Congressman Matt Gaetz, who cautioned against a ground invasion, stating it would “make our country poorer and less safe.”
Economic Concerns and Political Fallout
The economic realities of a prolonged conflict were similarly a significant concern. According to Reuters/Ipsos polling data, Trump’s approval ratings have recently hit a low of 36%, coinciding with a surge in fuel prices linked to the escalating tensions in the Middle East. Average gas prices have climbed to their highest levels in four years, a development that could significantly impact Republican prospects in the upcoming midterm elections. A recent Pew Research Center study indicates that a majority of Americans disapprove of military action against Iran.
The political headwinds are already evident. Last week, Democrats flipped a Florida state house seat previously held by a Republican, including Mar-a-Lago in its district, signaling a potential shift in momentum. This victory, reported by The Guardian, underscores the challenges facing the GOP as they attempt to maintain control of Congress and state legislatures.
A Base Grappling with Uncertainty
Beyond the political calculations, a deeper, more personal anxiety was palpable at CPAC. Supporters of Iran’s former crown prince Reza Pahlavi were heavily present, displaying flags of Israel, the United States, and the pre-revolutionary Iranian flag. Pahlavi’s address to the convention was met with enthusiastic applause, reflecting a segment of the base that views regime change in Iran as a desirable outcome.
“Donald Trump will not lose,” declared 73-year-old Mehrdad Ghafar, a long-time supporter who fled Iran after the 1979 revolution, wearing a “Make Iran Great Again” cap. “He has gone through all these kinds of wars bigger than this, and he came out successful.” However, not all attendees shared his unwavering confidence. Some expressed concerns about a potential draft, while others worried about the broader economic consequences of a prolonged conflict.
Deanna Averett, 87, voiced a sentiment rooted in religious conviction: “I love it. It’s biblical. He’s hoping that the great will overpower the bad, and they can have their country like it used to be.” James Bosler, 65, framed the conflict as an opportunity to resolve a decades-old rivalry stemming from the 1979-1981 Iran hostage crisis and potentially gain greater control over oil resources. Mark Weaver, 74, downplayed the economic risks, noting that stock markets have experienced similar downturns in the past.
Younger attendees, however, expressed more nuanced concerns. Gary Polakoff, 18, predicted that rising gas prices would further erode Republican support, while John Christy, 19, cautioned against a “forever war,” echoing Trump’s own campaign promises. Stephan Norquist, 21, echoed the sentiment that entering a conflict requires careful consideration, stating, “Just getting your foot in the door doesn’t necessarily mean you should want to move all the way. You shouldn’t commit on a bad idea.”
the absence of Trump at CPAC left attendees to grapple with conflicting viewpoints and uncertain futures. Lisa Musket, 60, expressed a continued trust in the former president’s judgment, stating, “I don’t want to see any more wars, and it’s kind of what we voted for. But now we’re in a war, and I know Trump will do the right thing.”
The coming weeks will be critical as the situation in the Middle East continues to evolve. The White House has indicated it will continue to assess the situation and consult with allies, but a clear path forward remains elusive. The next major checkpoint will be a scheduled address by the President to the nation on April 15th, where he is expected to outline his administration’s strategy for addressing the ongoing crisis.
What are your thoughts on the evolving situation in Iran and its potential impact on American politics? Share your perspectives in the comments below and join the conversation.
