Western New York residents should prepare for a significant weather shift as a period of heavy rain and potential severe storms is forecast to impact the region beginning Tuesday. A Weather Impact Alert is in effect for all of Western New York through Wednesday evening, anticipating challenging conditions for both the morning and evening commutes, as well as the risk of flooding. The National Weather Service has also issued a Flood Watch for the entire region, underscoring the potential for localized flooding due to saturated ground and anticipated rainfall totals.
While Monday brought mild and mostly dry conditions, shower chances will increase throughout the evening, particularly during the late commute. The early part of Tuesday’s morning drive should remain relatively unaffected, but scattered showers, potentially heavy at times, are expected to develop around dinnertime. These showers will develop into more widespread overnight, with the possibility of thunderstorms by early Tuesday morning.
Severe Storms and Damaging Winds Possible
The primary concern for Tuesday is the potential for severe thunderstorms, particularly across Niagara, Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. The Storm Prediction Center currently indicates a slightly elevated risk of severe weather in these areas. The most significant threat is damaging wind gusts, potentially reaching up to 60 miles per hour, which could down trees and disrupt power lines. The Storm Prediction Center provides updated risk assessments and forecasts.
In addition to strong winds, hail up to one inch in diameter is also possible. While the risk of an isolated tornado is low, it is not zero, and residents are encouraged to ensure they have a reliable way to receive weather alerts. Staying informed is crucial, as conditions can change rapidly during severe weather events.
Heavy Rainfall and Flood Concerns
Beyond the threat of severe storms, the heavy rainfall itself poses a significant risk of flooding. The ground is already saturated from recent rainfall, reducing its ability to absorb additional moisture. Most areas across Western New York are expected to receive 1 to 2 inches of rain over the next two days, but localized areas could see 2 to 3+ inches, increasing the likelihood of river flooding and minor flooding in low-lying areas. The National Weather Service’s Buffalo forecast office is closely monitoring the situation and providing updated flood forecasts.
The timing of the heaviest rainfall is expected to be Tuesday morning and again during the late afternoon and early evening. A brief respite from the rain is possible during the midday hours, with temperatures potentially climbing into the 60s, and even approaching 70 degrees in some locations, ahead of a warm front. However, this warm-up will also contribute to the atmospheric instability that fuels the potential for severe storms.
Looking Ahead: Wednesday and Beyond
The worst of the storms and heavy rain should subside Tuesday night as a cold front moves through the region. However, scattered showers are expected to continue throughout Wednesday, particularly across the southern tier. Temperatures will also drop significantly, with highs around 50 degrees early Wednesday morning, falling to the low to mid-40s by the afternoon and evening.
The soggy pattern is expected to persist through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, with daily chances of rain. Despite the continued precipitation, temperatures are expected to remain relatively mild, with highs returning to the upper 50s and 60s by Thursday, and potentially reaching the 70s early next weekend.
Residents are encouraged to stay ahead of the changing weather conditions by monitoring forecasts and alerts from reliable sources. WGRZ+ offers a 24/7 live radar stream, providing real-time satellite views and hour-by-hour forecasts for your neighborhood. Learn how to connect with WGRZ+ here.
The next update from the National Weather Service is scheduled for Tuesday morning at 6:00 AM, providing a more refined forecast and any potential adjustments to the Flood Watch or severe weather outlook. Stay tuned to time.news for continuing coverage of this developing weather situation.
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