Moscow is quietly enacting a sweeping shift in internet access, one that experts say is slowly fracturing Russia’s connection to the global web. Unlike abrupt shutdowns seen in countries like Iran, this process is unfolding gradually, through escalating mobile internet blackouts, increased restrictions on online traffic, and a growing crackdown on platforms like Telegram – a messaging app vital for daily life for millions of Russians. The moves raise concerns about the future of information access and digital freedom within the country, and signal a deliberate effort to exert greater control over the online sphere.
The changes aren’t happening all at once, making them harder to track and counter. Instead, authorities are employing a piecemeal approach, testing restrictions and gradually tightening the digital noose. This strategy, according to researchers, allows the Kremlin to assess the economic and social impact of each step before implementing further controls. The long-term goal, analysts believe, is to create a “splinternet” – a fragmented digital landscape where Russia’s internet operates increasingly independently from the rest of the world.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy voiced strong criticism of the escalating restrictions, stating on X (formerly Twitter) that the actions represent a significant step backward. “This is a step backward – a step 100 years back. They might as well switch to paper mail, telegraphs and horses soon,” Zelenskyy wrote on March 21, 2024.
A More Opaque Censorship Approach
Although internet shutdowns are not uncommon, Russia’s approach differs significantly from that of Iran, which experienced widespread internet outages earlier this year. Arturo Filastò, a researcher at the Open Observatory of Network Interference (OONI), an internet censorship watchdog, explains that Russia’s internet infrastructure is more decentralized. “They have many more internet service providers that operate and manage their network a bit more independently,” Filastò said, making a complete, nationwide shutdown more difficult to achieve. OONI has been tracking the increasing interference with internet access in Russia.
Instead, the Russian government is relying on mandated equipment deployed across various networks, with varying degrees of effectiveness. Since March 20, 2024, OONI data has shown a marked increase in blocking of Telegram, with interference detected across more than 500 networks. This suggests a widespread effort to limit access to the platform, which is used extensively for news dissemination, communication, and organizing.
The impact is already being felt by ordinary Russians. A video circulating online, shared by Belarusian TV station NEXTA, showed a Russian citizen expressing frustration with the deteriorating internet service. “I’m switching to pigeon post,” the user said. The video, posted on March 22, 2024, captures a sentiment of helplessness and economic frustration: “I pay for the internet and I perceive I am being robbed every month. They just take my fucking money and I don’t use the benefits of civilisation!”
Telegram Under Pressure, Domestic Alternatives Promoted
Analysts at Amnezia VPN, a company specializing in censorship circumvention tools, say the current Telegram blocks are more extensive and technically sophisticated than previous attempts to censor the platform. They have reported access problems across over a dozen regions, including Moscow and St. Petersburg. According to Amnezia, censors are now “blocking more crudely and on a much larger scale, no longer worried that something might break or spiral out of control.”
The pressure on Telegram is coupled with the promotion of domestic alternatives. Russian authorities have hinted at a complete block of Telegram by early April, with the head of Rostelecom, Russia’s state-owned telecommunications company, stating in March that WhatsApp is “dead” and Telegram will soon follow. Both platforms are expected to be replaced by Max, a new, government-controlled messaging service. While Max has been in development for some time, its adoption remains uncertain.
Beyond Messaging: Mobile Network Shutdowns and a Return to Analog
The restrictions extend beyond messaging apps. For at least a year, Russia has been implementing mobile network shutdowns across large areas of the country, granting access only to a “whitelist” of pre-approved websites. Earlier this month, mobile internet was entirely shut down in Moscow’s city center, disrupting banking services and phone calls.
This has led to a surprising resurgence in older technologies. According to a report by The Guardian, Russian retailers have seen increased sales of pagers, paper maps, and even basic mobile phones as people seek ways to circumvent the digital restrictions. The Guardian’s report details the growing demand for these analog alternatives.
Initially, authorities justified mobile internet outages, particularly in outlying regions, by citing security concerns related to Ukrainian drones. However, Amnezia analysts suggest these earlier blackouts were tests, implemented cautiously to minimize disruption to businesses. Now, they say, “updates appear to be rolled out as soon as they are ready,” and Roskomnadzor, the Russian telecommunications authority, is “testing how the economy will function under strict restrictions at any time of the year.” They forecast that shutdowns in Moscow will become “more or less routine.”
The Future of Russia’s Internet
While authorities haven’t yet shut down home networks, they possess the technology to do so and may move in that direction. Analysts point to similar shutdowns in Iran as a potential model for implementation. The increasing sophistication and scope of these restrictions suggest a long-term strategy to exert greater control over the flow of information within Russia.
The implications of this “splinternet” are far-reaching. It could stifle dissent, limit access to independent information, and hinder economic growth. The move also raises questions about Russia’s integration into the global digital economy and its relationship with the international community.
The next key development to watch is the potential complete blocking of Telegram in early April, as signaled by Rostelecom officials. The success or failure of Max, the government-backed messaging app, will also be a crucial indicator of the Kremlin’s ability to control the digital landscape. The situation remains fluid, and further restrictions are likely as Russia continues its efforts to reshape its internet.
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