The internal stability of Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party is facing a critical test as tensions mount between its traditional leadership and a faction led by former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Whereas official communications emphasize unity, a recent sondaż: ilu Polaków rozważyłoby głosowanie na partię Mateusza Morawieckiego suggests that while a majority of the public remains skeptical of a split, there is a measurable appetite for a more centrist-right alternative to the current party line.
The friction has evolved into a visible divide between two distinct wings of the party: the so-called “scouts” (harcerze), who align with Morawiecki’s more moderate, pro-European approach, and the “butter-makers” (maślarze), a hardline right-wing group including figures such as Patryk Jaki, Przemysław Czarnek, Tobiasz Bocheński, and Jacek Sasin. This ideological clash is no longer confined to private meetings; it has spilled over into public critiques and open defiance of party hierarchy.
At the center of this storm is the effort by party leader Jarosław Kaczyński to prevent a formal rupture. On April 2, Kaczyński met with Morawiecki to discuss the party’s internal situation and the strategic path toward victory in the next parliamentary elections. According to a statement from PiS spokesperson Rafał Bochenka, the goal is to ensure the party acts in an integrated manner to achieve its objectives.
Breaking down the numbers: Potential for a Morawiecki party
To gauge the potential impact of a party split, a poll conducted by SW Research asked respondents if they would consider voting for a new political entity if Mateusz Morawiecki were to leave PiS and establish his own movement. The results reveal a fragmented landscape of support.
While 61.6% of respondents stated they would not vote for such a party, 16.7% said they would. A significant portion of the electorate, 21.7%, remained undecided, suggesting that a substantial number of voters are still weighing their options within the right-wing spectrum.
| Demographic Group | Percentage Who Would Consider Voting |
|---|---|
| Total Respondents | 16.7% |
| Age 35–49 | 22% |
| Men | 21% |
| Rural Residents | 21% |
| Cities > 500k Residents | 18% |
The data highlights a distinct educational divide. Support for a potential Morawiecki party is strongest among those with primary education (36%) and vocational training (27%), falling to 17% for those with secondary education and 13% for those with higher education degrees.
The ‘Scouts’ vs. ‘Butter-makers’: A battle for the party’s soul
The conflict between the “scouts” and “butter-makers” is fundamentally about the direction of the Polish right. The “butter-makers” advocate for a more aggressive, hard-right course, particularly regarding relations with the European Union. This faction has been openly critical of the legacy of Morawiecki’s government, arguing that his approach was too conciliatory toward Brussels.
Morawiecki has pushed back forcefully. In a recent interview, he criticized the influence of politicians from the former Sovereign Poland (Suwerenna Polska), arguing that a group with historically low polling numbers should not dictate the narrative for the entire party. He described public attacks on his government’s achievements by fellow PiS members as a “suicidal mistake.”
The tension reached a boiling point in February when Patryk Jaki shared a recording on X, suggesting that some party members had failed to learn from past mistakes regarding EU dependence. Morawiecki responded by asserting that all major EU decisions were approved by the party leadership, warning that internal bickering is the primary reason for the party’s declining support since the last presidential elections.
Beyond PiS: The ‘Patriotic Camp’ project
While Morawiecki has denied that he is planning to launch a new political party, he has begun building a separate association. This project is designed to attract “patriots” who experience alienated by the current offerings of the right-wing parties, including PiS. Morawiecki claims that local government officials, entrepreneurs, and social activists are seeking a “patriotic camp” in a broader sense—one that avoids the extremes of the current factional wars.
This move toward independence appears to be causing friction with the party’s top leadership. On April 3, Morawiecki participated in a debate with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz to discuss agriculture and security. Reports indicate that Morawiecki proceeded with the debate despite receiving signals that the move was against the wishes of Jarosław Kaczyński.
Kaczyński’s balancing act
For Jarosław Kaczyński, the priority is containment. Sources close to the party indicate that the April 2 meeting was specifically aimed at finding a way to keep Morawiecki within the fold. The strategy is to transform the former Prime Minister into a “face of the party” and one of its primary pillars, rather than allowing him to drift to the periphery or leave entirely.
Though, the party is not ignoring the public nature of these disputes. Both Patryk Jaki and Mateusz Morawiecki, along with two other politicians who publicly sided with the former Prime Minister, are now facing scrutiny from the party’s ethics committee. This disciplinary move suggests that while Kaczyński wants to avoid a split, he is unwilling to tolerate public insubordination.
The coming weeks will be decisive for the future of the right-wing coalition. The party’s ability to reconcile the moderate “scouts” with the hardline “butter-makers” will determine whether PiS remains a unified force or becomes a fragmented collection of competing interests ahead of the next electoral cycle.
We will continue to monitor the findings of the PiS ethics committee and any further developments regarding the “patriotic association.”
Do you consider a more centrist-right party would be successful in Poland, or is unity within PiS essential for the right wing? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
