One crisis, whose star was MK Jida Rinawi Zoabi from Meretz behind us, and with another threatening MK in the background, in the person of Michael Bitton, a white brush, the threat to the integrity of the coalition still exists. Accepts any party and will certain connections – right and left – succeed in resolving the political tangle?
A poll conducted for the Jerusalem Post found that despite the end of the coalition crisis with MK Jida Rinawi Zoabi, the Meretz party is failing to pass the blocking percentage – this is the second poll in a row. The Likud continues to maintain great power and Ben Gvir, if he runs alone, continues to surprise.
In the survey, conducted by Menachem Lazar, Director of Panels Politics, 1,007 members participated in Panel4All’s respondents’ panel for conducting research on the Internet (a request to participate in the survey was sent to 6,302 members of the panel). The survey was conducted on a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel aged 18 and over, Jews and Arabs alike, and was conducted on May 25-24, 2022. The maximum sampling error in this survey is 3.3%.
In the current party map, Meretz, as mentioned, does not pass the blocking percentage with 2.6% of the vote. Two other parties are in close proximity to the threshold: Tikva Hadasha with 3.7% and Ra’am with 3.5%. Currently, the opposition led by Netanyahu has 59 seats, but a drop of another party from the coalition bloc below the blocking percentage will buy a majority for parties in the opposition bloc.
The survey also shows that only about a quarter of right-wing voters in the 2021 election say they will return to vote for the party in the next election. About 20% of them are still undecided and the others have dispersed mainly to right-wing parties such as the Likud and Religious Zionism. Right-wing voters in the next election are those who have remained loyal to the party in addition to blue-white voters hoping for a new and there is a future. Only about a third of those who will vote for the right in the next election are religious, the majority are traditional or secular.
The results to the question of who you would vote for if new Knesset elections were held today and the map of the parties would change as follows: Right-wing parties, New Hope and Yisrael Beiteinu would run in a united list and so would Labor and Meretz, the other parties remain as they are?
According to the poll, a list that unites the right-wing parties, New Hope and Yisrael Beiteinu receives 12 seats, less than the three receive separately (15 according to the current poll). This is mainly due to the leakage of votes into blue and white and there is a future. A unified list of the Labor Party and Meretz receives nine seats, two more than the Labor Party in a separate run, but apparently this has a partial prevention of losing votes to Meretz, which is currently below the blocking percentage.
The results of the question of who you would vote for would be held today in new Knesset elections and the map of the parties would change as follows: Amichai Shikli would run for independent list, Jewish power headed by Itamar Ben Gvir would run separately from the Religious Zionist Party, Naftali Bennett would add Yoaz Handel and Ayelet Shaked to his list Would she join the Likud, the other parties remain as they are?
The survey shows that the creation of the combinations of the right, new hope and Yisrael Beiteinu on the one hand and of Labor and Meretz on the other – leads to the opposition bloc growing to 60. The addition of Yoaz Handel strengthens the right in the mandate – partly due to a certain passage of white brush votes and new hope and partly due to statistical fluctuations.
Bennett, Lieberman and Lapid at a cabinet meeting (Photo: Olivier Fitoussi, Flash 90)A new list led by Amichai Shikli is approaching the blocking percentage and can see the 2.7% that received an achievement in the current poll for several reasons: Shikli has not yet officially announced the establishment of a list headed by him and has not presented a list of such persons. Alternatives that Shikli is just one of and the votes that Shikli receives come mainly from right-wing voters, religious Zionism and the Likud.
The survey findings also show that splitting the list of religious Zionists ostensibly strengthens its power to 11 seats (compared to nine without splitting). Itamar Ben Gvir receives more seats than Bezalel Smutrich. Jewish Power led by Ben Gvir receives its votes from the list of religious Zionists but also from Likud voters.
MK Itamar Ben Gvir (Photo: Mark Israel Salem)In addition, the addition of Ayelet Shaked to the Likud allegedly weakens the party by three seats in relation to the number it receives without changing the list of lists. The reason for this is the right-wing alternatives presented in this question: the splitting of the list of religious Zionism in two and the addition of Shikli’s list – all of these are right-wing lists that detract from the Likud.
Ayelet Shaked (Photo: Yonatan Zindel, Flash 90)
MK Amichai Shikli (Photo: Noam Moskowitz, Knesset Spokeswoman)When asked whether or not you are satisfied with Naftali Bennett’s performance as Prime Minister, 65% answered that they are not satisfied, while 30% answered that they are satisfied with the Prime Minister’s performance and 5% answered that they have no opinion on the matter. Respondents answered that they do not want to see an Arab party an active partner in the coalition, compared to 22% who do.