The arrival of fighters from the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iran’s strategic Khuzestan province has sparked fresh diplomatic friction and domestic unrest, as Tehran appears to be reinforcing its internal security apparatus against both civilian uprisings and the threat of foreign military intervention. The movement of these Iraqi-based proxy forces into Iranian territory marks a significant escalation in the regime’s efforts to stabilize its grip on power during a period of acute vulnerability.
Reports from residents in Khuzestan indicate that at least 1,000 armed PMF members entered the province under the guise of a relief convoy, arriving in military vehicles and carrying official flags. While Iranian state media have published images of the fighters, the government has remained vague about the total number of personnel deployed. This Iraq’s PMF presence in Iran is seen by analysts as a calculated move to secure oil-rich regions and critical infrastructure, particularly around Abadan and Ahvaz, ahead of potential clashes.
The deployment has been met with public gratitude from the highest levels of the Iranian government. President Masoud Pezeshkian recently used the social media platform X to thank the “Muslim people of Iraq” for their support, stating that he “warmly shake the hands of the people, officials, and fighters of Iraq in Mesopotamia” in the face of what he described as an “unjust” war.
A Legal and Historical Flashpoint in Khuzestan
The presence of foreign armed forces on Iranian soil is not merely a political controversy but a legal violation. Under Article 146 of the Iranian Constitution, the stationing of foreign military forces within the country is strictly prohibited. This legal boundary has previously been a point of contention, notably when the deployment of Russian forces at Iranian military bases drew sharp criticism from domestic press and members of parliament.
Beyond the legalities, the arrival of the PMF has reignited deep historical trauma in cities like Khorramshahr. For many residents, the sight of Iraqi-backed armed forces in their streets is a haunting reminder of the Iran-Iraq War, during which Khorramshahr was occupied by the Iraqi army for nearly two years. Local residents have expressed distress, suggesting that the city has effectively fallen under Iraqi occupation once again, four decades after the original conflict ended.
The strategic placement of these forces is particularly concerning to locals, as PMF units have been reported in sensitive areas near the Abadan oil refinery. These fighters are believed to be preparing for street warfare, tasked with supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij in the event of mass protests or a possible US ground assault.
The Strategic Utility of Proxy Forces
Tehran’s reliance on the PMF is rooted in the group’s extensive experience in urban warfare and its unique relationship with the United States. Unlike the IRGC, which is a direct arm of the state, the PMF operates as a proxy with a complex history of both fighting and cooperating with American forces in Iraq since 2009.
Shukriyga Bradost, an international security researcher at Virginia Tech, notes that the PMF’s entry is driven by a mutual necessity for survival. Bradost suggests that the fall of the Islamic Republic would effectively mean the end of the PMF and other Shiite groups tied to the regime. She further explains that if the regime’s own military ranks were to collapse during a US operation, the PMF could be utilized as a primary defense force due to their familiarity with US military tactics.
This is not the first time Iran has used foreign mercenaries to maintain internal order. In recent years, the regime has drawn on the Fatemiyoun Division (composed of Afghan Shiites) and the Zainabiyoun Brigade (composed of Pakistani Shiites) to crush public dissent. The PMF played a similar role during the “Woman, Life, Freedom” uprising in 2022, where they were deployed in Tehran and other major cities to supplement a domestic security apparatus that had been exhausted by prolonged protests.
Iraq’s Balancing Act and Internal Fractures
In Baghdad, the deployment has created a diplomatic nightmare for Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani. While Sudani maintains close ties with Tehran, his government has implicitly opposed the movement of Iraqi armed forces into Iran without the authorization of the commander-in-chief. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein has acknowledged that Iraq has been drawn into the conflict between Iran and the United States against its will.
The situation is further complicated by a deepening rift within the PMF itself. The organization is no longer a monolith; It’s currently fractured between a pro-Velayat faction loyal to the Islamic Republic and a Marjaiya faction that identifies more closely with the Shiite religious authority of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and the political influence of Muqtada al-Sadr.
This internal division reflects a broader shift in Iraqi society. According to data from the IIACSS research group, trust in the pro-Iran faction of the PMF has fallen to approximately 28%, as more Iraqis grow weary of the group serving as a mercenary arm for Tehran. Some elements, such as the Abbas Combat Division, have already broken away to join the Iraqi Ministry of Defense directly to distance themselves from Iranian control.
Summary of Regional Stakeholders and Risks
| Stakeholder | Primary Objective | Key Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Iranian Regime | Regime survival and urban control | Increased domestic hatred and legal violations |
| Iraqi Government | Maintaining national neutrality | Iraq becoming a direct battlefield for US-Iran conflict |
| PMF (Pro-Iran) | Ensuring the survival of their patron | Loss of legitimacy within Iraqi society |
| US Forces | Regional deterrence and stability | Increased complexity in targeting proxy assets |
A Fragile Security Landscape
As the PMF continues to embed itself in Khuzestan, the risk of miscalculation grows. Social media platforms in both Iran and Iraq are filled with apprehension, with supporters of the Tishreen movement using hashtags to warn that Iraq should not be treated as Iran’s “backyard.”
The immediate concern for the international community remains whether this deployment will trigger a preemptive response from the United States or Israel. While some analysts suggest that the US may avoid striking these forces to prevent a total collapse of the Iranian military—which could lead to a chaotic civil war—the presence of missiles and light weapons on PMF pickup trucks in Iranian cities suggests a readiness for high-intensity urban conflict.
The next critical checkpoint will be the official response from the Iraqi government regarding the unauthorized movement of Kata’ib Hezbollah and other PMF units across the border, as well as any potential shift in US troop posture in the region.
We invite our readers to share their perspectives on the regional implications of this deployment in the comments below.
