For many homeowners in Australia’s most expensive suburbs, a lush street canopy is a symbol of prestige and serenity. In the heart of the City of Sydney, the streets of Paddington are defined by their winding rows of London plane trees and weeping figs, creating a green ceiling over heritage terrace homes that is as much a part of the neighborhood’s charm as its architecture.
Paddington’s jacarandas explode in colour, typically between October and November each year. (Supplied: Susan Wyndham)
Though, a novel micro-level analysis suggests that the beauty of tree proximity to property value is a delicate balance. While urban greenery is generally prized, the distance between a tree and the center of a home can be the difference between a financial windfall and a significant loss at auction.
A peer-reviewed study published in the Cities urban planning journal indicates that street-side trees in the City of Sydney local government area (LGA) can either inflate or depress a home’s sale price depending on their exact location. The findings reveal a specific “danger zone” for homeowners: a single tree planted within 10 meters of the center of a property could decrease its sale value by 2.69 percent.
Conversely, the “sweet spot” for value is slightly further away. Trees located between 10 and 20 meters from the center of a home were found to increase the property price by 1.16 percent.
The high cost of a close canopy
To quantify the impact, researchers analyzed the sale prices of 1,568 properties sold within the City of Sydney LGA between January 2021 and August 2024. By cross-referencing this data with the council’s mapping of more than 48,000 street-side trees, the study isolated the financial effect of greenery while accounting for variables such as land size, number of bedrooms, and proximity to transport and schools.
With the average house price in the area sitting at $2,613,000 during the study period, the financial stakes are substantial. The researchers concluded that a single tree within that 10-meter threshold could reduce a property’s value by approximately $70,289. In contrast, a tree positioned 10 to 20 meters away could add up to $30,310 to the home’s value.
Researchers have done extensive mapping to display the exact location of public trees in the City of Sydney LGA. (Supplied: Song Shi)
According to the report, the resistance to very close proximity often stems from the practical burdens of certain species. The study specifically highlighted the Brush box, London plane, and tuckeroo trees as having a negative impact when planted too near. These species are often associated with aggressive root systems that can damage infrastructure, high levels of vegetation litter, or concerns regarding hay fever.
Song Shi, an associate professor of property economics at the University of Technology Sydney and one of the study’s authors, noted that the findings offer a window into the mindset of urban residents. “Here’s a piece of evidence to show if you plant a tree in the right location, people like it,” Dr. Shi said. “If you plant a tree too close to a property in a city like the City of Sydney — it’s a pretty dense area — there’s a pretty strong resistance.”
Climate resilience vs. Property rights
The tension between property valuation and urban greenery comes at a critical time for Australian cities. Local governments are under increasing pressure to expand canopy coverage to combat the “urban heat island” effect. Forecasts from the Climate Council suggest that the number of days per year with temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius could double by 2050.
Similarly, the CSIRO predicts an increase in the intensity of hot days and a higher likelihood of prolonged droughts. To make cities more liveable and resilient, councils are aggressively planting trees to cool buildings and improve air quality.
Local governments in capital cities across the country are planting more trees to address climate change. (ABC News: Morgan Timms)
The City of Sydney has planted more than 18,000 street trees over the last two decades, reaching a canopy coverage of at least 20.9 percent as of 2024. While these efforts are aimed at the broader public good, Dr. Shi warns that councils must be aware of resident resistance to avoid planning conflicts.
A matter of statistical pattern, not absolute truth
Not all experts agree that the findings should be viewed as a universal rule for property pricing. Matthew Ng, from the UNSW City Futures Research Centre, cautioned against over-extrapolating the data, noting that only 129 properties in the study had trees within the 10-meter threshold.
“Ten metres is basically a micro location they’re looking at,” Dr. Ng said, adding that individual characteristics—such as driveway length and property setbacks—play a significant role in how a tree affects a specific home.
Cameron Murray, chief economist at Fresh Economic Thinking, described the results as “statistical patterns” rather than “statistical truths.” He argued that because the City of Sydney is an exceptionally high-value market, any change in amenity—positive or negative—is magnified financially. “Every bit of extra amenity is worth more to people with more money than people with less money who live somewhere else,” Dr. Murray said.
Across Australia’s capital cities, the drive toward higher canopy targets continues despite these complexities. Most councils now employ LiDAR technology and satellite imagery to map their greenery and plan future plantings.
| City | Canopy Target | Target Year |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 40% | 2050 |
| Melbourne | 40% | 2040 |
| Brisbane | 50% | 2031 |
| Adelaide | 40% | 2035 |
| Perth | 30% | 2036 |
| Canberra | 30% | 2045 |
The challenge for urban planners moving forward is the “right tree in the right location.” For councils in Melbourne and Perth, In other words balancing the need for shade with the protection of infrastructure and the financial interests of homeowners.
As cities continue to push toward their 2030 and 2050 targets, the focus is expected to shift toward more precise species selection to minimize root damage and allergen concerns while maximizing cooling effects.
This report is intended for informational purposes and does not constitute financial or real estate advice. Property valuations are subject to a wide array of market variables.
We want to hear from you. Does the greenery on your street add to your home’s appeal, or is it a maintenance headache? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
