A significant shift in the geopolitical leanings of Southeast Asia has emerged, with a new poll indicating a growing ASEAN preference for China over US strategic partnership. The findings suggest a pivot in regional sentiment, driven largely by perceived instability and unpredictability in Washington’s foreign policy.
According to the latest annual survey from the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, 52 percent of respondents stated that the region should align with Beijing if forced to choose between the two superpowers. This marks a notable reversal from the previous year, when 52.3 percent of those polled preferred the United States, with China trailing at 47.7 percent.
Having reported from more than 30 countries on the intersection of diplomacy and conflict, I have observed that Southeast Asian nations rarely seek a total divorce from any major power. Instead, they practice a sophisticated form of diplomatic hedging. However, the current data suggests that the balance of trust is tilting toward Beijing as the region grapples with increasing geopolitical uncertainty.
The shift appears to be a reaction to specific policy triggers in the U.S. The survey, conducted between January 5 and February 20, began shortly after reports that U.S. President Donald Trump authorized the capture of Venezuela’s former leader, Nicolas Maduro, and announced indefinite U.S. Control over the sale of Venezuelan oil. Analysts suggest such assertive and unilateral actions in the Western Hemisphere signal a volatility that worries leaders in the East.
A Pivot Driven by Policy Volatility
The preference for China is not necessarily an endorsement of Beijing’s internal policies, but rather a pragmatic response to Washington’s current trajectory. Respondents—which included a cross-section of 2,008 policymakers, research institution members, and private sector leaders across 11 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations—cited trade uncertainties and erratic diplomatic maneuvers as primary concerns.
The “Trump factor” has become a focal point of regional anxiety. The perceived unpredictability of U.S. Trade policies and the tendency toward unilateral intervention have led many in the region to view the U.S. As a less stable partner for long-term strategic planning. In contrast, while Beijing has its own frictions with ASEAN members—particularly regarding maritime disputes—its economic engagement is often viewed as more consistent.
The following table illustrates the year-on-year shift in strategic preference among the polled respondents:
| Survey Period | Preference for China | Preference for US |
|---|---|---|
| Current Survey | 52% | 48% |
| Previous Year | 47.7% | 52.3% |
Beyond the Zero-Sum Game
Despite the headline numbers, analysts warn against viewing these results as a definitive victory for Beijing or a total loss for Washington. The prevailing sentiment in Southeast Asia is not one of choosing a side, but of diversifying risk in an increasingly multipolar world.
The desire for economic diversification means that ASEAN states are unlikely to abandon their security ties with the U.S. Or their trade dependencies on China. Instead, they are seeking a strategic equilibrium where they can engage with both superpowers without being forced into a binary choice. This approach to regional alignment allows them to maximize economic gains from China’s Belt and Road Initiative while maintaining the security umbrella provided by U.S. Presence in the Pacific.
The survey highlights that the region’s primary goal is stability. When Washington’s policies are perceived as disruptive—whether through sudden trade tariffs or aggressive interventions in South America—it creates a vacuum of confidence that Beijing is quick to fill. The current trend suggests that the “stability” offered by China, however transactional, is currently more attractive than the “uncertainty” associated with the current U.S. Administration.
Stakeholders and Regional Impact
The implications of this shift vary across the region’s diverse political landscapes:
- Policymakers: Are increasingly cautious about relying solely on U.S. Security guarantees, leading to more frequent high-level diplomatic engagements with Beijing.
- Private Sector: Business leaders are prioritizing trade resilience, often favoring the more predictable trade frameworks currently offered by China.
- Research Institutions: Analysts are noting a transition toward a “multipolar” mindset, where regional autonomy is prioritized over superpower alignment.
What remains unknown is how the U.S. Administration will respond to this cooling of relations. Historically, the U.S. Has relied on its “Indo-Pacific Strategy” to maintain influence, but the effectiveness of that strategy depends heavily on the perceived reliability of the U.S. As a partner.
As the region moves forward, the focus will likely remain on maintaining a neutral stance that prevents any single power from dominating the Southeast Asian archipelago. The shift toward China in the polls serves as a cautionary signal to Washington that strategic partnership is not a permanent entitlement, but a relationship that must be maintained through consistency and predictability.
The next critical checkpoint for regional sentiment will be the upcoming ASEAN Summit, where member states will likely discuss updated frameworks for economic cooperation and regional security in the face of ongoing superpower competition.
We invite readers to share their perspectives on the shifting dynamics of the Indo-Pacific in the comments below.
