Two U.S. immigrants, both survivors of life under Nazi rule, are still making waves in their 90s, setting the tone for discussions at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Henry Kissinger, who is celebrating his 99th birthday this week, appeared on a US video broadcast urging viewers not to try to incite or defeat Russia, and called on Ukraine to come to terms with the 2014 loss of territory to end the war. A few hours later, Tuesday George Soros, who attended the forum in person at the age of 91, warned that Vladimir Putin’s Western victory in Russia’s war was essential to “save civilization” and urged the West to provide Ukraine with everything it needed to win.
They both have very different prescriptions for restoring peace, but their perceptions also have a lot in common. Both believe that U.S. values and interests make maintaining peace in Europe a top priority for U.S. foreign policy. Both see the war as a deep shock to the world system and fear the consequences of a protracted military struggle. Both Kissinger and Soros believe that Russia is ultimately a secondary issue to U.S. policy, and that U.S. future relations with China are much more significant in the long run.
The point at which they disagree is what world order and civilization should be maintained. Soros, much like the Biden administration, sees the dominant issue in world politics as a struggle between democracy and dictatorship. Democracies are required by law to respect the rights of their citizens and must operate within the limits of international law in the world.
Tyrannical rulers reject such restrictions both in their countries and in foreign policy, and Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is just as illegal as the way he treats political opponents in Russia. His attack on Ukraine is an attack on the basic principles of international order, and if it succeeds, international politics will return to jungle law, according to which, as the Athenians told Mali in the Peloponnesian Wars, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they owe.”
Kissinger’s position is less ideological. There have always been and always will be many types of governments in the world. The role of the US is to create and defend a balance of power, protecting our freedom and the freedom of our allies, at the necessary minimum risk and cost. We have no mission to convert the Chinese and Russians to the gospel of democracy and we must recognize Kissinger for listeners in Davos, is today and is expected to remain an important component in the European system of countries, and lasting peace must recognize this inevitable fact.
“First of all, capture the rabbit”
Looking at history, the most obvious thing is that neither approach guarantees success. The French and British leaders who tried to appease Hitler in the 1930s said very kissing things about the need to respect Germany’s national interests. The neo-conservatives who pushed George W. Bush to invade Iraq made similar claims to Soros’s over Saddam Hussein’s tyrannical rule. As both Kissinger and Soros would agree, a mechanical application of any historical theory to the messy reality of international politics is a great way to get into trouble.
When Winston Churchill, a man who demonstrated both kissing and sorority traits in his long career, was asked about the planning for the post-war days in 1942, he answered with climactic words for Western leaders to remember today. “I hope that these speculative studies will be entrusted to those who have a lot of free time, and that we will not forget Ms. Glass’ recipe for cooking in a stew-cooked rabbit – ‘First of all, capture the rabbit.'”
Our rabbit has not yet been captured. Putin is nowhere near seeking ceasefire conditions, and is apparently preparing for a war of attrition – and a long war involves many dangers to the West. Russia’s new tactic of threatening the world’s food supply by blocking ports in Ukraine reminds us that Putin still has cards up his sleeve and European countries seem to be more afraid of an embargo on Russian gas than Russia is afraid of a European boycott.
Ukraine will not be able to fight a protracted war without immense help from the West, economically and militarily. What will happen to the Ukrainian currency while the state spends every penny it has on a war of existence? How many $ 40 billion aid packages is Congress willing to deliver? How much economic aid is the EU ready to provide at a time when many EU economies are struggling with rising inflation and food prices? If the war causes food shortages and even famine in some places, and political instability spreads to countries like Egypt, will the West be willing to coordinate a global response while continuing to help Ukraine?
Henry Kissinger and George Soros may have stood out in discussions at Davos, but the last word will be from the cookbook author, Ms. Glass.