For years, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has framed the European Union as an existential threat to Hungarian sovereignty, using a combative rhetoric to paint Brussels as an adversary of the people. Still, new data suggests a profound disconnect between the government’s narrative and the actual sentiment of the electorate.
A recent survey conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) reveals that Hungarian voters EU membership support remains overwhelmingly high, with 77% of respondents backing continued membership in the bloc. Even more striking is the level of trust: three-quarters of those surveyed expressed confidence in the EU, while 68% indicated they want a recalibration of how Hungary engages with Brussels.
The findings come at a critical juncture, arriving just days before a pivotal election that could see Orbán ousted after 16 years in power. The poll indicates that the appetite for a new direction is not limited to the opposition. nearly half (45%) of Orbán’s own Fidesz supporters now favor a reset in relations with the EU.
A divide between rhetoric and reality
The ECFR research suggests that the “illiberal” image Orbán projects to the world—and his allies abroad—does not align with the domestic reality. According to researchers Piotr Buras and Pawel Zerka, the data shows a Hungary that does not share the Prime Minister’s conception of the EU as an enemy, nor does it consistently align with his specific grievances against the bloc.
This internal tension is most evident among Fidesz voters. While they remain loyal to the party, a majority (65%) support continued EU membership, and 64% say they trust the bloc. A significant minority (43%) even support the prospect of Hungary joining the euro, though This represents lower than the general population’s support level of 66%.
The friction between Budapest and Brussels has reached a fever pitch in recent years. The EU has suspended billions of euros in funding over concerns regarding the rule of law, judicial independence, migration policies, and LGBTQ+ rights. Orbán has responded by consistently blocking key EU initiatives, including sanctions against Russia and financial aid packages for Ukraine.
The rise of the Tisza party
Much of the momentum for change is centered around Péter Magyar and his centre-right Tisza party, which has surged in recent polling to lead Fidesz by a double-digit margin. Among Tisza supporters, the desire for a shift in government approach is nearly universal, with 91% calling for a reset.
However, the poll clarifies that the drive toward the ballot box is fueled more by domestic grievances than by foreign policy. For many, the EU is a backdrop rather than the primary driver of their political choice. The priorities of the two main camps diverge sharply when it comes to the internal state of the nation.
| Voter Group | Top Priority | Secondary Priority | Tertiary Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tisza Supporters | Corruption & Governance (31%) | Public Services (18%) | Cost of Living/Inflation (17%) |
| Fidesz Supporters | Energy Security (22%) | Cost of Living/Inflation (20%) | Peace and Security (27% as reason for vote) |
The Ukraine complexity
While a victory for the Tisza party would likely lead to a more cooperative relationship with Brussels, the ECFR warns that a total “U-turn” on foreign policy is unlikely, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine. The survey highlights deep-seated skepticism that transcends party lines.
Tisza voters generally view Ukraine as a partner, whereas Fidesz supporters view it as an adversary. Despite this, both groups share a reluctance to provide further financial aid to Kyiv. While 85% of Fidesz voters reject further support, Tisza voters are nearly split, with 48% in favor and 45% opposed. Similarly, opposition to Ukraine’s EU membership remains high: 83% of Fidesz supporters oppose it, and the Tisza camp is divided 50% to 40%.
The most radical divide appears in the perception of Russia. Only 6% of Fidesz voters view Moscow as an adversary, compared to 40% of Tisza voters. This suggests that while a new government would be more constructive toward the EU, “ancient habits may die hard” regarding Eastern European diplomacy.
What this means for the EU
For European leaders, the upcoming vote represents the most consequential election in the bloc this year. Orbán has long been a far-right icon, and his potential departure would remove one of the most consistent obstacles to EU consensus. However, the ECFR authors caution that the transition would not be instantaneous.
The researchers emphasize that any new government would first need to “put its own house in order” internally before it can fully stabilize its external relations. The mandate for change is clear, but the path to a “new normal” in Budapest will require careful negotiation between a potentially fragile new coalition and a cautious Brussels.
The next critical checkpoint will be the official certification of the election results this Sunday, which will determine whether Hungary maintains its current course or begins a long-awaited recalibration of its role within the European project.
Do you think a change in leadership in Budapest will fundamentally shift the EU’s internal dynamics? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
