The 2025-26 NBA regular season has reached its conclusion for a third of the league. While 20 teams are currently locked in the high-stakes battle of the postseason, the bottom 10 have already shifted their gaze toward the horizon. For these franchises, the immediate future is a blur of uncertainty, defined by a lottery that remains weeks away and a draft class widely regarded as one of the most talented in recent memory.
This period of the calendar often creates a state of organizational paralysis. Roster-building strategies are essentially frozen, as the identity of a team can change overnight based on a single ping-pong ball. Whether a team lands a franchise-altering big man or a polished perimeter creator dictates how they approach every other move, from veteran minimum signings to blockbuster trade requests.
However, the lack of a draft position does not mean a lack of agency. Every non-playoff NBA team offseason to-do list contains items that are entirely independent of the lottery. From resolving looming contract disputes to correcting systemic coaching failures, there are critical levers that front offices must pull now to ensure they are not starting from zero when the 2026-27 campaign tips off.
The stakes are particularly high for teams caught in the “middle ground”—those with All-Star talent but no clear path to a championship. For these clubs, the offseason is not just about adding talent, but about deciding whether their current core is a foundation or a ceiling.
The Contractual Crossroads: Stars and Extensions
For several franchises, the offseason will be defined by a single signature. The most pressing matter in the league involves the Milwaukee Bucks and the future of Giannis Antetokounmpo. With owner Wes Edens having signaled that the organization will either extend the Greek Freak or trade him, the timeline has become the primary antagonist. Since Antetokounmpo does not become extension-eligible until October, the Bucks face a dangerous waiting game.
The critical checkpoint is May 10, the start of the NBA Draft Combine. If a long-term commitment isn’t reached by then, Milwaukee must assume a separation is inevitable. Trading a player of Antetokounmpo’s caliber requires a window of negotiation and scouting that only the Combine—where the league’s executives are gathered in one place—can provide.
Similarly, the Washington Wizards are grappling with the fit and financial future of Trae Young. Having played only five games in the capital, the Wizards have a limited sample size of how Young’s ball-dominant style meshes with the current roster. This uncertainty is compounded by a draft-heavy class of point guards; the Wizards risk drafting a long-term successor to Young while simultaneously committing to a max extension.
In Brooklyn, the Nets face a different dilemma with Michael Porter Jr. Historically patient with their assets, the Nets have seen Porter outperform expectations. Because Brooklyn does not control its 2027 first-round pick, winning games in the short term is a priority. The front office must decide whether to leverage Porter’s high trade value for a “monster return” or utilize their current cap space to front-load an extension using the renegotiation-and-extension rule.
Financial Flexibility and the Luxury Tax
The Indiana Pacers locate themselves in a unique position. Following their 2025 Finals run, the roster remains largely intact, having replaced Myles Turner with Ivica Zubac. The challenge here is not talent, but the NBA’s luxury tax. Historically averse to the tax, Indiana is projected to be over the line for next season.
If the Pacers retain a top-four draft pick, the financial pressure increases. To avoid the tax, they may need to move a notable rotation player. While losing someone like Obi Toppin or T.J. McConnell would be a blow, the potential arrival of a prospect like Caleb Wilson or Cameron Boozer could make those minutes expendable.
| Team | Primary Objective | Key Figure |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Bucks | Contract Resolution | Giannis Antetokounmpo |
| Dallas Mavericks | Rookie Extension | Dereck Lively II |
| Memphis Grizzlies | Asset Liquidation | Ja Morant |
| Sacramento Kings | Coaching Hire | TBD |
| Recent Orleans Pelicans | Defensive Anchor | TBD |
Leadership Vacuums and Coaching Shifts
While some teams worry about the payroll, others are dealing with a collapse in leadership. The Chicago Bulls are currently operating in a vacuum after firing their top two basketball executives. The immediate priority is the role of Billy Donovan. Whether he remains the head coach, transitions into a front-office role similar to Brad Stevens’ path in Boston, or departs for a more competitive situation, the Bulls cannot hire a new general manager without this answer.
Organizational alignment is paramount; a new GM forced to inherit an incumbent coach often leads to friction. To avoid this, the Bulls must settle Donovan’s future to determine if the new GM should be choosing the coach or if the coach should be helping choose the GM.
The Sacramento Kings are facing a more urgent crisis of competence. Following an NBA investigation into an intentional foul on Seth Curry—which stemmed from interim coach Doug Christie miscalculating the team’s foul count—the organization looks dysfunctional. The Kings’ only sustained success in two decades came under a veteran hand like Mike Brown. For a team that fell to the bottom of the standings despite Play-In ambitions, the move toward a proven, experienced head coach is no longer optional.
Roster Architecture: Filling the Gaps
For the teams entering a full-scale rebuild, the focus is on clearing the path for the next generation. The Memphis Grizzlies have already moved Jaren Jackson Jr. And Desmond Bane, leaving Ja Morant as the final piece of the previous era. However, Morant’s high-usage style is fundamentally at odds with a rebuild. To develop young players and incoming draft picks, the Grizzlies must find a way to move Morant’s onerous contract, as he is not a player who can blend into a supporting role.
In Dallas, the Mavericks are attempting to build a sustainable core around the Cooper Flagg era. Having saved significant money through the Anthony Davis trade, the Mavericks have the flexibility to take a calculated risk on Dereck Lively II. By offering a team-friendly rookie extension now, Dallas could lock up a cornerstone big man for far less than his projected market value, securing the Gafford-Lively tandem that powered their 2024 Finals run.
The Utah Jazz and New Orleans Pelicans are both searching for defensive identity. Utah possesses an imposing front line with Walker Kessler and Jaren Jackson Jr., but they are critically deficient in point-of-attack defense. With a lineup featuring Lauri Markkanen and Ace Bailey, the Jazz need a perimeter defender who can neutralize opposing guards—a solvable problem given their current trade assets.
The Pelicans’ struggle is more systemic. The pairing of Zion Williamson and Derik Queen has proven ineffective, ranking in the 11th percentile defensively and 18th percentile offensively according to Cleaning the Glass data. Because neither player provides three-point spacing, the Pelicans are desperate for a true rim-protector. Without a defensive anchor, the Pelicans will continue to allow an unsustainable number of shots in the restricted area, hindering any chance of viability in the 2026-27 season.
The next major milestone for these ten franchises will be the May 10 Draft Combine, which will serve as the unofficial starting gun for the NBA’s most volatile offseason in years. Once the lottery results are finalized in June, these “to-do” lists will expand, but the foundational work begins now.
Do you think the Bucks should trade Giannis if he doesn’t extend by May? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.
