A slim majority of respondents across Southeast Asia now indicate they would side with China over the United States if forced to choose between the two superpowers, marking a significant shift in the region’s geopolitical alignment. According to the “State of Southeast Asia: 2026 Survey Report” released by Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, 52 percent of the 2,008 respondents selected Beijing, while 48 percent chose Washington.
This result reverses a narrow lead previously held by the United States, suggesting that Southeast Asian economies lean toward Beijing as the primary anchor for their future stability and growth. The trend is particularly pronounced in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, and Timor-Leste, where support for China’s regional role is most concentrated.
The shift is less about a sudden abandonment of the West and more about a growing perception of economic pragmatism. For many in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the tangible infrastructure and trade integration offered by China are beginning to outweigh the traditional security guarantees provided by the U.S.
The Economic Gravity of Beijing
The report highlights a stark divide in how the two powers are perceived as economic drivers. Nearly 56 percent of respondents identified China as the most influential economic power in the region, dwarfing the 15.3 percent who viewed the United States in the same light. This perception is bolstered by China’s role as the largest trading partner for all ASEAN member states.
Infrastructure projects, such as the expansive rail networks connecting China to Laos, Thailand, and Malaysia, serve as visible symbols of this integration. These projects are seen not just as transport links, but as arteries of trade that generate immediate local prosperity.
Wang Huiyao, founder and president of the Center for China and Globalization, noted that China has become the biggest partner for all ASEAN countries and that this economic boom is continuing to expand. This financial gravity is reflected in future expectations: 55.6 percent of respondents believe their country’s relations with China will improve or improve significantly over the next three years.
Washington’s Reliability Crisis
While China’s influence grows, the foundations of U.S. Influence are perceived to be narrowing. The report indicates that 51.9 percent of respondents identify the leadership of President Donald Trump as their top geopolitical concern. This anxiety is rooted in a perceived lack of reliability in Washington’s foreign policy and a departure from international norms.
Joanne Lin, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and one of the survey’s authors, suggested that the region is not necessarily turning away from the U.S., but is instead adopting a more cautious assessment of Washington’s regional role. This caution is driven by a perceived inconsistency in how the U.S. Applies international law and manages its global institutions.
Former U.S. Diplomat Scot Marciel highlighted that declining confidence in U.S. Reliability stems from dramatic shifts in foreign policy. Marciel pointed to the imposition of high tariffs and actions in Venezuela earlier this year as examples that have injected uncertainty and economic turmoil into Southeast Asian markets.
The Shift Toward Geoeconomic Anxiety
The survey reveals a pivot in the nature of regional concerns. While security has always been paramount, geoeconomic anxieties are now a primary source of unease. Approximately 43.4 percent of respondents cited the U.S. Use of sanctions and trade measures to punish other countries as a major factor eroding their positive impression of Washington.
The economic impact of U.S.-led conflicts also weighs heavily on the region. Marciel noted that joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran—which occurred after the survey’s primary data collection period (Jan 5 to Feb 20)—have further raised concerns about the economic repercussions of U.S. Military interventions and the broader role the U.S. Plays in global stability.
| Metric | China Perception | United States Perception |
|---|---|---|
| Preferred Partner (Hypothetical) | 52% | 48% |
| Most Influential Economic Power | 56% | 15.3% |
| Expected Relation Improvement (3yrs) | 55.6% | 32.8% |
A Complex Balancing Act
Despite the lean toward Beijing, the relationship remains fraught with complexity. Southeast Asian nations continue to grapple with significant friction points, most notably the disputes in the South China Sea and the ongoing crisis in Myanmar. The report found that these issues, along with climate change and global scam operations, remain top priorities for regional leaders.
The overarching strategy for ASEAN remains “centrality”—the effort to avoid being forced into a binary choice between two superpowers. However, the data suggests that when the choice becomes inevitable, the perceived reliability of China’s economic commitments is currently winning out over the U.S. Security umbrella.
For Washington to regain ground, the report suggests a demand to respect international law and institutions, ensuring that the global system is not undermined by unilateral trade actions or unpredictable policy shifts.
The region now looks toward the upcoming ASEAN summits to see how these shifting perceptions will translate into official diplomatic policy and trade agreements. Further updates on regional alignment are expected following the next round of bilateral trade reviews between ASEAN and its major partners.
Do you believe economic integration is more important than security guarantees in today’s geopolitical climate? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
