Diplomatic efforts to avert a full-scale regional war are gathering fresh momentum, with officials in Pakistan claiming that the United States and Iran are nearing a temporary truce. The potential “interim” agreement, which could be reached as early as this weekend, comes after a period of extreme volatility that nearly collapsed existing ceasefire efforts earlier this week.
The proposed deal is reportedly focused on a basic framework to halt immediate hostilities and secure the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and fossil gas supplies. The prospect of a partial agreement sent global stocks toward record highs on Thursday as oil prices dropped sharply, reflecting market relief at the possibility of restored shipping lanes.
While the White House and mediators in Islamabad have suggested a breakthrough is imminent, the path to a permanent settlement remains fraught. Recent days have been characterized by wild swings between diplomatic hope and military escalation, with both Washington and Tehran using belligerent rhetoric and sporadic violence to secure leverage ahead of negotiations.
The current tension reached a peak earlier this week. On Monday, Iran launched missiles and drones at the United Arab Emirates following a short-lived U.S. Effort to support shipping stranded by Iran’s closure of the Strait. By Wednesday, the U.S. Military fired on an Iranian-flagged oil tanker, shortly after President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum warning Tehran to accept a deal or face a new wave of bombing “at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.”
The Two-Phase Framework for Peace
According to sources familiar with the negotiations, the U.S. Has proposed a two-phase approach designed to separate immediate security concerns from long-term nuclear disputes. The first phase would be a streamlined, one-page memo aimed at preventing a return to active conflict and ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran is reportedly seeking the unfreezing of its overseas assets, including approximately $6 billion currently held in Qatar, as a condition for this initial step. Once the interim truce is established, a second phase would begin, granting both nations a 30-day window to hammer out a more comprehensive agreement regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
Pakistan has emerged as the principal mediator in these indirect contacts, following a round of face-to-face talks last month that ended without a deal. “Both sides are now more amenable to suggestions, the distance between their proposals is reducing,” said a diplomat in Islamabad. “They start off with maximalist positions and then soften.”
The Nuclear Sticking Point
Despite the optimism surrounding a temporary truce, a permanent settlement remains elusive due to fundamental disagreements over nuclear enrichment. President Trump has insisted that any final deal must require Tehran to “export” its highly enriched uranium—material essential for a nuclear weapon—to the U.S., a demand many experts believe Iran cannot accept.
The gap between the two nations is most evident in the proposed moratorium on nuclear enrichment. While mediators believe a compromise of around 10 years may be possible, the starting positions remain far apart:
| Issue | Iran’s Position | U.S. Position |
|---|---|---|
| Enrichment Moratorium | 3 to 5 years | 20 to 25 years |
| 60% Uranium Stockpile | Opposed to handover | Demand for export to U.S. |
| Immediate Goal | Asset unfreezing ($6bn) | Reopening Strait of Hormuz |
Economic Pressure and Political Timing
The leverage in these talks is currently balanced between U.S. Economic blockades and Iran’s control over the Gulf’s shipping lanes. Washington has blockaded Iran-linked shipping to exert maximum pressure on Tehran. However, a confidential CIA analysis reported by the Washington Post suggests this blockade may require three to four more months to inflict severe economic hardship, potentially giving Tehran room to hold out.
Some Iranian officials are reportedly favoring a strategy of delaying a final agreement until closer to the U.S. Midterm elections in November, calculating that the Trump administration will be under more intense pressure to resolve the war. Conversely, regional diplomats warn that Iran could overplay its hand. if negotiations fail, Washington could unilaterally walk away, leaving Iran under suffocating sanctions without the victory of a formal deal.
Internal alignment within Iran also appears to be a priority. President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed on Thursday that he met with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei—who has remained largely out of the public eye since his March appointment—to unify the country’s position. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a phone call Thursday with his Pakistani counterpart, Ishaq Dar, to review regional trends and emphasize the path of diplomacy.
The Lebanese Connection
The conflict remains inextricably linked to the broader regional struggle involving Israel and Hezbollah. Iran is expected to tie any definitive end to hostilities in the Gulf to the cessation of Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
This complicates the timeline, as Israel continues to target Hezbollah commanders. On Thursday, Israel confirmed it had killed a Hezbollah commander in an airstrike on Beirut—the first attack on the Lebanese capital since a ceasefire was agreed upon last month. Because Hezbollah launched its recent conflict in support of Iran on March 2, any “permanent” peace in the Gulf likely requires a synchronized resolution in Lebanon.
Pakistani officials privately hope that an outline agreement could be signed by President Trump in Islamabad next week, potentially coinciding with his scheduled visit to China. “We remain optimistic,” said Tahir Andrabi, spokesperson for Pakistan’s foreign ministry. “We expect an agreement sooner rather than later.”
The next critical checkpoint will be the conclusion of the current review of the U.S. Proposal by Tehran, with officials monitoring for an announcement regarding the interim truce before the weekend.
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