From Bogota
The great surprise of Colombian elections This was undoubtedly the result obtained by Rodolfo Hernández of the League of Anticorruption Leaders (27.93%), who until weeks before the election -according to the polls- only had an average intention to vote of 10% and it was increasing until reach a technical tie for second place.
Colombian society will go to the polls again on June 19 to decide whether Gustavo Petro of the Historical Covenant or Rodolfo Hernandez of the League of Anticorruption Governors, will succeed Iván Duque.
With this result, the progressive candidate Gustavo Petrowhich won the first round with more than 40.52% of the votes, the electoral contest will not be easy scheduled for June. Hernández’s irruption, with 27.93%, unseated the Uribe candidate Federico Gutiérrez, who obtained 23.98% of the votes. Gutiérrez’s defeat also represents the collapse of a power structure allied to paramilitarism and drug trafficking.
The phenomenon that Colombia is experiencing today is the phenomenon of the outsider that Latin America is experiencing. We can say that the clear message left by the Colombian people at the polls, is that they do not want “the same as always” to continue to govern. Although there have been exceptional cases of outsiders who came to power in that country, this fashionable phrase reflects popular discontent with a preference of the electorate for candidates outside the traditional political parties.
Just as the people of Colombia did this Sunday and the society of Costa Rica did recently with the arrival of Rodrigo Chaves to the presidency, the region is going through a process where Citizens express their discontent at the polls.
The Engineer, as he likes to be called Hernándezis a candidate with a speech demagogue and authoritarian. During her campaign she had controversial concepts, even stating that women have no place in politics and revealing her macho look when she expressed “that women support from home.” Although he presents himself as “the change”, he is rather the most backward establishment candidate in Colombia; that he will depend on the political structure of the right if he were to govern.
Another of the electoral challenges was citizen participation. Yesterday’s electoral contest, with 99.94% of the tables counted, had the 54.9% stake, the highest percentage in presidential elections since the second round of elections in 1998. Let us remember that on that occasion it was 62.69%. Meanwhile, in the previous elections of 2018, the participation was approximately 53% in both electoral instances, the only ones to exceed 50% also since 1998.
We can say that the political-electoral change in Colombia has been appearing for four years. When in 2018, Petro obtained almost 42% of the votes in the ballotage, a little more than 8 million votes in around 20 million. This was an unprecedented event in Colombian electoral history, since never had a candidate from the left obtained that many votes. With the result of this Sunday, the political subject of the Historical Pact has been consolidated.
It would seem that the surprise candidate has a more comfortable scenario for the second round. Nevertheless, a discursive and strategic unity of Petro’s campaign can increase his votes hand in hand with possible allies such as the center and the greens. Just as he did during his visit to Europe, showing himself to the ruling social democracies. In this way he can broaden his base for the second round, with the understanding that Hernández is likely to consolidate the support of “Fico” Gutiérrez’s electorate.
Beyond the results obtained in the ballottage, after June 19 Colombia will begin a change of erathe claim of the young people in the streets that politics will not be able to ignore: leave behind half a century of war and build a different country, where dignity becomes a habit.
Dolores Ganduflo is director of the Electoral Observatory of the Permanent Conference of Political Parties of Latin America and the Caribbean (COPPPAL), professor of International Relations at the University of Salvador (USAL) and member of the Observatory of Political Reforms of Latin America and the Network of political scientists.