AC Milan currently finds itself in a precarious position that extends far beyond the league table. While the results on the pitch have turned cold, the deeper issue is a systemic institutional crisis that threatens to erode the club’s long-term ambitions. For a club of this stature, the current state of affairs is not merely a dip in form, but a fundamental questioning of its direction.
The tension within the club has become palpable, most notably in the reported friction between manager Massimiliano Allegri and Zlatan Ibrahimović. This discord, which surfaced as the team’s performance began to slide, points to a management structure where roles are blurred and a clear strategic vision is absent. For the supporters, this instability is mirrored in the experience of San Siro, where a growing sense of “touristification” has left the core fanbase feeling like unwelcome guests in their own home.
At the heart of the current struggle are the multifaceted problemi del Milan, where a crisis of identity has converged with a collapse in tactical execution. When a club prioritizes brand prestige over sporting success, the disconnect eventually manifests on the grass. The current slide is the logical conclusion of a project that has lost its way.
The Anatomy of a Spring Collapse
The decline was not sudden, but it has been severe. Following a victory in the derby on March 8, the squad held a reassuring nine-point cushion over fifth place. However, that safety net proved illusory. Today, the team sits tied for fourth place with Roma, clinging to a slim advantage based solely on head-to-head results.
The psychological turning point appears to have been the defeat against Lazio. After the derby win, a brief window of ambition opened, with the club trailing Inter by seven points. While president Cardinale later remarked that the team was in the race for the Scudetto until the Lazio match, that ambition lasted barely a week. Once the title became an impossibility, the team seemed to shift into neutral, unaware that the path to a Champions League spot was not as downhill as they assumed.
This pattern is not unfamiliar to those who have followed Massimiliano Allegri throughout his career. In recent seasons at Juventus, March has often signaled a climax of decline rather than a peak of performance. The lack of tangible stimuli in the spring has historically led to a drop in intensity, a trend that has now migrated to the Rossoneri.
| Season/Team | Spring Trend | Outcome/Context |
|---|---|---|
| Juve 22/23 | Performance Drop | Impacted by capital gains scandal |
| Juve 23/24 | Late Season Slump | Only 2 wins in final 15 Allegri games |
| Milan (Current) | Post-March Fade | Loss of 9-point lead over 5th place |
Tactical Erosion and the Scoring Drought
The numbers tell a sobering story of offensive decay. Before the Lazio defeat, the team ranked fourth in Serie A for non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) per 90 minutes at 1.40. Since then, they have plummeted to fourteenth, with that figure dropping to 0.93. More concerning is the quality of chances; clear shots per 90 minutes fell from 2.32 to 1.63.
The attacking blueprint, which relied on the technical brilliance of players like Leão, Pulisic, and the distribution of Modrić, has become stagnant. The reliance on individual drives and unexpected surges from defenders like Tomori or Pavlović has failed as form dipped. This is evident in the success rate of dribbles, which fell from 55% to 50%, leaving the attack devoid of fluidity.
In a system designed by Allegri to minimize volatility and maximize the impact of single episodes, missing those few chances is fatal. Recent matches have been defined by these missed opportunities: Nkunku against Napoli, Leão against Udinese, and a Rabiot post against Atalanta. When a “game of minimums” fails to capitalize, the emotional control of the match evaporates, leaving the team vulnerable to early goals—such as the 5th-minute strikes conceded against Atalanta and Sassuolo.
A Fragile Defensive Shield
While the attack has stalled, the defense—once the team’s bedrock—has become alarmingly fragile. The absence of key figures like Gabbia and the intermittent lack of Modrić’s protection have forced the team into an even deeper defensive shell. The average distance of defensive interventions from their own goal has shrunk from 45.80 meters to 43.41, making them one of the most passive teams in the league.
Lowering the block is not a problem in itself, but doing so without compactness is a liability. The team is frequently bypassed between the lines, and individual errors in the box have become common. The goal conceded to Ederson, where Raspadori was allowed to turn comfortably on De Winter, epitomizes this lack of coordination. Even Pavlović, previously a standout, has begun to lose his markers.
Attempts to implement a more aggressive press when trailing have been largely ineffective. The coordination in stepping out to meet opponents is poor, and the team struggles to win individual duels. This tactical rigidity means that a single long ball can often dismantle the entire structure, as seen in the match against Udinese.
The Ghost of the ‘Ritiro’
In a desperate bid to stabilize the ship, the club has opted for a ritiro—a closed training camp. For those of us who have covered the game for decades, this move evokes memories of Allegri’s previous attempts to shock his squads back into form.
The parallels are striking. In 2013/14, a similar retreat led to a series of bizarre results, including a loss to the Primavera team, before Allegri was eventually dismissed. In 2012/13, a training camp imposed after a loss to Lazio preceded a victory over Genoa—the same opponent the team faces this coming Sunday. While that era eventually culminated in a Champions League qualification described as one of Allegri’s finest achievements at AC Milan, the current context is far more volatile.
The immediate focus now shifts to the match against Genoa. This fixture serves as the first litmus test for whether the training camp has addressed the psychological fragility and tactical gaps that have defined the team’s spring. The result will provide the first real indication of whether this cycle can be broken or if the club is destined to restart from zero once again.
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