President Donald Trump threatened to expand U.S. strikes against Iran on July 23, 2026, as unspecified Iranian officials reportedly rejected a ceasefire proposal carried to Tehran by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaydi. The rejection signals that Iran’s leadership believes it holds the military advantage in the ongoing conflict.
Ceasefire Rejection and Escalating Threats in Tehran
The diplomatic push collapsed when Iranian leadership turned down an overture delivered by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaydi during his July 23 visit to Tehran, according to unspecified Iranian officials speaking to the New York Times. Unspecified Iranian officials told the New York Times on July 23 that Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal that Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaydi carried to Tehran during his July 23 visit. Iran reportedly rejected a US ceasefire proposal on July 23, which suggests that Iran believes that it has the advantage over the United States in this phase of the war. Zaydi held talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
That rebuff prompted an immediate reaction from Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump warned on July 23 that he might broaden the military campaign, telling Axios that the United States is prepared to launch a massive attack if he authorizes the expansion.
Regional Bases Under Drone Attack and Maritime Blockade Pressures
While diplomatic channels stalled, military operations intensified across the region. Iran is currently engaged in an information effort to frame its attacks on US bases and regional states as retaliatory and defensive. Iran is not merely responding to US strikes on Iran, however, but is engaged in proactive military operations to achieve discrete objectives. Iran has pursued a strategy aimed at inflicting a steady number of US casualties by targeting sleeping quarters and recreation facilities at US regional bases in order to impose US domestic pressure that would force the US government to halt its airstrike campaign on Iran.
The Artesh claimed that its forces conducted drone attacks targeting US forces gathered at Sheikh Isa Base in Bahrain, Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan, at al Udeid base in Qatar, and Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff at 2:00 PM ET on July 23. These regional flashpoints coincide with maritime disruptions in the Red Sea. The Houthis struck at least one Saudi vessel to enforce their naval blockade of Saudi Arabia on July 22. United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations confirmed on July 23 that the Houthis attacked an unspecified Saudi-flagged tanker with an unknown projectile.
The Houthis likely calculated that closing the Bab al Mandeb Strait could help them extract concessions from Saudi Arabia without provoking a major US military response. Anti-Saudi Houthi rhetoric notably accompanied these maritime moves.
Iran continues to support the Houthis and their efforts to disrupt maritime traffic in and around the Red Sea. The expansion of the maritime shipping crisis to the Red Sea supports Iranian efforts to degrade the United States’ willingness and ability to continue its strike campaign against Iran and coerce the United States to accept Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. Unspecified Iranian-backed Iraqi militias likely conducted a drone attack on Kuwait’s Abdali border crossing with Iraq on July 23, marking Iran and the Axis of Resistance’s first attack on a regional border crossing since July 11. Iranian media separately reported on July 23 explosions on Kuwait’s Bubiyan Island. Furthermore, the IRGC is highlighting the alleged presence of naval mines in the southern corridor to deter commercial vessels from using this corridor and consolidate Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC claimed on July 22 that an oil tanker attempting to use the southern route struck a naval mine that disabled the vessel, though ISW-CTP has not observed reports of any commercial vessels hitting mines in the southern route at the time of this writing.
Shifting Casualties and Intelligence Support Strains
The Pentagon revised its casualty figures on July 24, lowering the recorded death toll of American service members from 18 to 14. Defense Department officials explained that four service members killed over the weekend—three in Jordan and one in northern Iraq—were removed from the list because their deaths occurred after Trump declared a ceasefire in April.
Adding a complex intelligence dimension to the conflict, four people familiar with US intelligence told Reuters on July 22 that Russia may be providing Iran with targeting intelligence on US sites and equipment in the region. Russia’s provision of targeting intelligence to Iran threatens to sharpen the precision of ongoing drone and missile attacks just as Washington weighs whether to widen its operational scope.
Keep reading
