U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer reported on July 16, 2026, that while formal USMCA trade talks with Mexico are progressing, discussions with Canada have yielded no concessions.
The Mexico Strategy: Deficits and Rules of Origin
For the Trump administration, the primary friction point with Mexico is a structural trade deficit that grew 17% in 2025 to $197 billion, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Greer has explicitly stated he has a presidential mandate to implement tariffs, quotas, or any other necessary measures to bring that deficit under control.
In May, the administration proposed a requirement that 50% of the value of North American-built vehicles originate in the U.S. While Greer did not revisit that specific percentage during his recent appearance at the Aspen Institute Security Forum, he pushed for tighter rules of origin to ensure cars and trucks contain more U.S. and Mexican parts and fewer components from Asia.
The U.S. is currently identifying products in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and industrial goods that can be moved back to North America to reduce reliance on China and Southeast Asia.
Canada’s Stalled Negotiations and the “Entry Fee”
Unlike Mexico, Ottawa has not yet entered formal negotiations on the future of the trade pact. Greer noted that while Canada rolled back its Online Streaming Act and dropped a proposed digital services tax, these moves do not earn credit because they simply involve performing a harmful action and then reversing it.
Greer pointed out that Canada and the People’s Republic of China were the only two countries to retaliate against U.S. tariffs over the last year and a half, leaving Canada in a different spot
than other trading partners.
Jamieson Greer, U.S. Trade Representative, stated that such actions do not constitute a concession or movement, but are merely a description of their current state of talking.
The Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) covers roughly $1.3 trillion in annual trade. While the U.S. trade deficit with Canada fell 21% last year to $48.3 billion—largely due to oil imports—the Trump administration remains focused on lowering this figure further.
Tariff Relief vs. Production Shifts
Canada is seeking “real relief” from unfair tariffs, offering proposals that Gabriel Brunet, press secretary for Minister Dominic LeBlanc, claims could generate hundreds of billions of dollars in value for American workers.
Currently, the only tariff relief being offered to Canadian steel and aluminum companies is conditional: they must commit to moving production to the United States.
U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra has reinforced this stance, stating that Canada should not expect to be an exception to the president’s global tariff regime.
The July 1 Deadline and the Decade Clock
On July 1, the U.S. declined to extend the trade agreement, which effectively started a ten-year countdown to the deal’s expiration unless the three nations can agree on improvements.
Greer indicated that a breakthrough with Canada likely requires a direct understanding between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney.
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