The Opportunity Party has cleared the 5% threshold for the first time, surging three points to 8% in the latest 1News Verian poll conducted from August 8 to 11. The poll puts the newcomer party neck-and-neck with New Zealand First, which fell three percentage points to also sit at 8%. Under the polling results, Qiulae Wong’s party would enter Parliament for the first time with nine seats, positioning the party as a potential kingmaker in future coalition negotiations.
Opportunity Party Surges to 8% in New Poll
The survey results place Labour in the lead at 30% (down two points), while National remains steady at 29%. Among other parties, the Green Party fell one point to 12%, ACT rose three points to 9%, and Te Pāti Māori dropped one point to 1%. The poll assumes that current Māori electorate incumbents hold their six seats, creating a 125-seat Parliament where 63 seats are required to govern.
Parliamentary Arithmetic and Potential Coalitions
Translated into seats, the poll gives Labour 38, National 36, the Greens 15, ACT 11, New Zealand First 10, and Opportunity nine, alongside six Māori electorate seats. Neither major political bloc holds enough numbers on their own to form a majority. The current right-leaning arrangement of National, ACT, and New Zealand First sits at 57 seats, which is not enough to retain power. Meanwhile, a left bloc consisting of Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori holds 59 seats, also falling short of a majority.
Adding Opportunity to the mix changes the parliamentary arithmetic. A left bloc that includes Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori, Opportunity, and at least one other partner could reach the numbers needed to govern. Conversely, adding Opportunity to a right-leaning grouping would produce 66 seats, but potential partnerships face significant political hurdles.
Tax Policy Disagreements and Leader Stances
Major party leaders have drawn strict lines regarding potential cooperation with Opportunity, whose tax policy includes a universal basic income of up to $370 per week and a 1.75% land value tax on urban land. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon previously ruled out working with Opportunity due to its tax policy. Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins stated that there is no way
his party would support Opportunity’s tax policy, though he noted he would make a final call on coalition preferences closer to the election.
ACT leader David Seymour indicated openness to discussions while dismissing Opportunity’s tax plans as not happening
and labelling the party’s platform extraordinary.
Meanwhile, Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong stated that her party is focused on maximising its party vote to become a strong and stable coalition partner to either Labour or National.
Political Turmoil Surrounding Leadership Confidences
The poll release coincided with a turbulent political week in Parliament. National leader Christopher Luxon survived a confidence vote during an extraordinary caucus meeting on Wednesday after facing a leadership challenge launched by MP Chris Penk.
In the preferred prime minister rankings released alongside the survey, Luxon slipped one point to 17%, while Chris Hipkins dropped one point to 15%. Winston Peters fell three points to 7%, Chlöe Swarbrick remained steady at 6%, and David Seymour rose one point to 5%. Undecided or refused responses dropped three points to 11% in the poll, which carried a maximum margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.4 percentage points based on a sample size of 847 voters.
Worth a look
