Voters across Florida cast ballots in high-stakes gubernatorial and U.S. Senate primaries. The contests test Republican dominance after years of conservative gains, while newly released polling indicates potential vulnerability for the GOP in upcoming November midterms against Democratic challengers David Jolly and Alex Vindman.
Primary Battles Shape the Republican and Democratic Fields
Florida voters headed to the polls to decide party nominees for both governor and Senate. On the Republican side, Representative Byron Donalds entered the gubernatorial primary backed by President Trump and boasting a formidable war chest of $90 million. Donalds, first elected in 2020 to represent the Naples and Fort Myers region, emerged as a prominent House Freedom Caucus member who famously challenged Kevin McCarthy for the speakership across 15 rounds of voting in 2023.
Donalds faced 10 Republican challengers, including Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins—who branded his campaign as DeSantis-appointed
—and far-right activist James Fishback. Fishback injected intense controversy into the race by gaining support from figures like Nick Fuentes and Tucker Carlson, while drawing condemnation for racist commentary targeting Donalds.
Across the aisle, former Republican Representative David Jolly led the Democratic primary field for governor. Jolly, who represented St. Petersburg from 2014 to 2016, is the second prominent Republican-turned-Democrat to run for governor in Florida in two cycles, following Charlie Crist’s 2022 run.
Senate and Down-Ballot Races Draw National Attention
In the Senate race, appointed incumbent Ashley Moody sought the Republican nomination to complete the term of Marco Rubio, who left the seat to become secretary of state. Moody, a two-time elected state attorney general, faced three Republican challengers.
For Democrats, retired Army Lieutenant Colonel Alex Vindman competed against state Representative Angie Nixon of Jacksonville. Vindman gained national prominence during the first Trump administration as a National Security Council expert on Ukraine and a key witness in the first presidential impeachment. Nixon ran as a labor organizer backed by progressive lawmakers and unions.
Further down the ballot, incumbent attorney general candidate James Uthmeier faced a challenge from Democrat José Javier Rodríguez. Meanwhile, the state’s congressional map featured newly redrawn boundaries pushed through by Governor Ron DeSantis to solidify Republican advantages.
Polling Data Points to a Tightening General Election Landscape
While Florida has trended solidly Republican in recent election cycles—highlighted by DeSantis winning re-election in 2022 by 20 points—a survey conducted by Change Research and commissioned by Freedom Project USA reveals a remarkably competitive landscape ahead of the November midterms.
The poll surveyed 2,070 registered voters, including 1,593 likely voters, between May 13 and May 16, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. In a hypothetical gubernatorial matchup, Jolly led Donalds 46 percent to 42 percent
among likely voters, a margin that widened to 48 percent to 41 percent
after respondents reviewed candidate positions and opposing critiques.
In the Senate contest, Vindman led Moody 47 percent to 45 percent
, while Rodríguez led Uthmeier 45 percent to 41 percent
in the attorney general race.
“The fact is Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds will be Florida’s next governor.”
Ryan Smith, Chief Strategist for Donalds’ Campaign
Conversely, Vindman campaign spokesman Albert Fujii pointed to cost-of-living pressures as a driving force for change, telling reporters that Floridians are fed up with Ashley Moody’s failed leadership that is driving up the cost of gas, groceries, insurance, rent and other essentials
.
Economic dissatisfaction heavily influences the electorate, with 70 percent of respondents reporting they are falling behind the cost of living and 65 percent stating the state is unaffordable for their families. Furthermore, the survey identified a notable enthusiasm gap, with Democratic voter motivation reaching 88 percent compared to 75 percent among Republicans, alongside an 18-point advantage for Democrats among independent voters.
