Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply to single digits as US-Iran peace talks stalled. Maritime data shows commercial carriers increasingly going dark by switching off transponders, while Washington and Tehran issue competing claims over naval control of the vital oil and gas trade corridor.
Single-Digit Traffic and the Kpler Tracking Data
Commercial shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to just seven commodity ships on Thursday, marking a steep decline from the previous day’s tally, according to data compiled by shiptracker Kpler. Out of that total, four vessels entered the strategic waterway while three exited.
Before the current conflict erupted in February, the passage carried nearly a fifth of global shipments of crude oil and liquefied natural gas. The Thursday transit figures notably excluded any very large crude carriers or liquefied natural gas tankers. However, Kpler data showed that a single very large gas carrier carrying propane and butane managed to transit out of the waterway by using the Iranian route.
Traffic simultaneously slowed at the nearby Bab el-Mandeb strait. Commodity ships transiting that southern checkpoint totaled 23 on Thursday, down from 34 on each of the previous two days. The Thursday Bab el-Mandeb traffic included 16 incoming vessels and seven departures, among them two Suezmax crude oil tankers—the Stoic Warrior and the Dokos—bound for Vietnam and India respectively.
Dichotomy of Routes: Iranian Control Versus US Protection
The strategic waterway has fractured into two distinct pathways since tensions spiked between Washington and Tehran. Before the war, vessels navigated the strait along established central traffic separation schemes determined primarily by port calls and safety rather than military coercion.
Tehran now insists that commercial traffic utilize the northern, Iranian route hugging Iran’s coast near Larak and Qeshm islands, which feeds directly into Iranian ports. Washington counters by demanding that carriers use the southern Omani route under US naval protection.
Analysis of Kpler data covering August 1 through August 19 reveals how commercial operators are navigating these competing mandates. Out of 112 oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers passing through the strait during that period, 21 openly utilized the Iranian route, while only two formally chose the Omani route.
A broader look at all cargo traffic—including dry cargo and chemicals—shows 236 total transits over the same August window. Among those, 83 ships openly used the Iranian route, three used the Omani route, and two stuck to the pre-war central channel, according to data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler.
The Rise of Dark Routing and Transponder Shutdowns
The vast majority of commercial traffic is effectively operating off the grid. Out of the 112 oil and gas carriers tracked between August 1 and August 19, 89 vessels—making up more than 80 percent of that specific traffic—went dark or used unclassified routes.
A similar pattern emerged across total cargo transits for the same timeframe, where 148 out of 236 ships disabled their tracking or used unknown paths. That accounts for more than six out of 10 ships passing through Hormuz during the period.
Vessels routinely switch off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders because both military forces have targeted ships they accuse of violating navigation rules. While these ships can sometimes be observed upon reappearing, dark routing makes precise path confirmation nearly impossible from available records.
Political Standoffs and Economic Pressures
President Donald Trump has maintained that US forces remain in control of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting that Washington might seek to take charge of the territory. Trump claimed the strait was open for transit despite Iranian assertions that the waterway remains closed to unapproved vessels, compounded by an active US naval blockade targeting Iran-linked shipping.
Trump also threatened to bomb Oman in an apparent bid to dissuade Muscat from entering into any joint management agreement with Tehran over the waterway.
