Both the contiguous United States and global oceans recorded their hottest July on record, driven by climate change and a strengthening El Niño. The U.S. averaged 76.9 degrees Fahrenheit, while surface temperatures across oceans outside polar regions reached 69.73 degrees Fahrenheit, surpassing previous marks set during the Dust Bowl and 2023.
U.S. Temperatures Shatter Decades-Old Records
July averaged 76.9 degrees Fahrenheit (24.9 degrees Celsius) across the U.S., according to data reported Monday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That figure sits 3.3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.8 degrees C) above the 20th-century average, marking the highest average July temperature in the nation’s 132-year record.
The extreme heat revived comparisons to historical climate crises. It’s not good when you’re breaking records from the Dust Bowl, which we are in this case,
meteorologist Jeff Masters of Yale Climate Connections told the Associated Press, adding, If we’re exceeding records from The Dust Bowl, that says that we’re in deep trouble.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports noted that record-breaking nighttime lows served as the largest driver of July’s historic heat. Research has demonstrated that hotter nights act as a classic sign of climate change and present significant public health threats. Extreme weather coincided with the heat, including wildfires in eastern Oregon that burned more than 140,000 acres, the warmest July 4 ever recorded across multiple Mid-Atlantic cities, and extreme overnight temperatures throughout the Southwest.
Global Ocean Temperatures Reach New Highs
Across the globe, sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions hit an average of 69.73 degrees Fahrenheit (20.96 degrees Celsius) in July, according to an analysis published Monday by Copernicus, the Earth observation component of the European Union’s space program. This figure edged past the previous July record of 69.6 degrees Fahrenheit (20.89 degrees C) set in 2023.
The oceans are now hovering just a few hundredths of a degree below the all-time record set in March 2024. It’s just a case of when,
Samantha Burgess, deputy director at Copernicus in Reading, UK, told Nature regarding the imminent breaking of that all-time record. Climate scientist Kristina Dahl of Climate Central in Princeton, New Jersey, warned, It just spells trouble for the planet.
These soaring ocean temperatures threaten marine ecosystems, fisheries—such as anchovy populations off the Pacific coast of South America—and coral reefs. It’s basically a terrifying time for corals and coral-reef ecosystems,
Amy Apprill, a marine geochemist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, told Nature.
The Role of an Unprecedented El Niño
The ongoing heat is heavily influenced by a powerful El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rise above average, releasing excess heat into the atmosphere.
While typical El Niño years raise global temperatures, the current outlook from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows this specific event peaking around 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius) in December. This trajectory could make it the strongest El Niño on record by a wide margin. Copernicus reported that these conditions directly fueled July’s record global sea surface temperatures.
Scientists note that human-caused climate change amplifies these patterns. Katharine Jacobs, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona, told the Associated Press that the intense heat, drought, and fire conditions are absolutely consistent with the climate change signal.
Copernicus data additionally showed that July tied with July 2024 for the second-warmest July on record globally, with average air temperatures reaching 16.9 degrees Celsius (62.42 degrees Fahrenheit), just shy of the record 16.95 degrees C (62.51 degrees F) set in July 2023.
Widespread Wildfires and Drought Across Continents
Europe has experienced three consecutive months of extreme heat, leading to severe drought and tinderbox conditions that sparked record-setting wildfires. Samantha Burgess noted in a statement that Western and Central Europe are suffering from drier-than-average soil conditions. As soils dry out, they lose their ability to provide natural cooling, allowing heat to build more readily,
Burgess said. This is a clear example of how climate change is intensifying heat extremes, with heat and drought increasingly reinforcing one another.
In the U.S., heat advisories remain in effect for parts of the central and southeastern regions as a heat dome migrates east. The National Interagency Fire Center reported that nearly 30,000 firefighters were battling 98 large, uncontained blazes nationwide on Monday, with approximately half of those fires burning in the Northwest.
Persisting Forecasts and Future Outlooks
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects above-average temperatures to persist through August across the central and southern tiers of the United States. Drought conditions are projected to expand across parts of the Northwest, east of the Rocky Mountains, portions of the Great Plains, and the Upper Midwest. Significant woodland fire potential is anticipated to remain above normal in the Northwest, the Great Basin, the central Rockies, parts of the northern and southern Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and southern Florida.
Experts emphasize that El Niño’s most severe global impacts will manifest in the coming months, though its temperature effects remain temporary compared to long-term carbon emissions. Without significant intervention, Masters warned, this may be one of the coolest years we’re gonna experience for the rest of our lives.
