Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year, according to an outlook released by the agency. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, with activity typically peaking by mid-September. The agency’s outlook indicates a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of an above-normal season.
NOAA Predicts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The anticipated quieter season stands in contrast to recent frenetic years, with below-average activity in the Atlantic being anticipated by NOAA and other experts. The last time NOAA forecasted a below-average season was in 2015, which also featured an El Niño and resulted in 12 named storms, just under the historical average of 14.
Key Factors Driving the Outlook and El Niño’s Role
The primary driving force behind the below-normal outlook is the anticipated return of El Niño and its potential to become historically strong. El Niño conditions tend to support fewer tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. However, the season is expected to be shaped by competing factors, as ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely to be weaker than average, conditions that typically support a more active year.
Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,
said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that the agency is prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings using advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies.
Forecast Ranges and Storm Classifications
For the 2026 Atlantic season, NOAA holds a 70% confidence in its predicted ranges. An average season typically features 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. The specific forecast ranges include:
- Named storms: 8 to 14 total (with winds of 39 mph or higher).
- Hurricanes: 3 to 6 (with winds of 74 mph or higher).
- Major hurricanes: 1 to 3 (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher).
Named storms include both tropical storms and hurricanes, categorized by maximum sustained wind speeds on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A storm becomes a hurricane at 74 mph (Category 1) and can reach Category 5 at 157 mph or higher. By comparison, three named storms had already occurred by late May in 2026, outpacing the historical average of about two by that point in the season.
Preparedness and Guidance for Communities
NOAA officials emphasize that seasonal outlooks are based on large-scale weather and climate patterns and do not serve as landfall forecasts, as they cannot indicate precisely where or when storms may affect land. Because it only takes one storm to make for a very bad season,
Graham urged residents to review preparedness plans early rather than waiting for a specific threat to materialize.
Detailed safety information and preparedness guidelines remain publicly available through weather.gov/safety and Ready.gov. NOAA also confirmed that the Atlantic seasonal outlook will be updated in early August, ahead of the historical peak of the hurricane season.
