Apple is projected to ship over 10 million units of its anticipated book-style foldable iPhone within its first year, according to a recent International Data Corporation forecast. The premium handset, carrying an estimated retail price of $2,500, is set to debut at a September 9 showcase event.
The consumer electronics industry stands on the precipice of a major shift. While the broader mobile market faces severe headwinds, the impending arrival of Apple’s premier foldable device is expected to breathe new life into a category that has remained largely a niche since Samsung Electronics Co. introduced it seven years ago, according to market research.
IDC Forecasts Strong First-Year Momentum
Market analysts project that the Cupertino tech giant’s first venture into foldable hardware will clear a significant volume hurdle in its initial months on the market. IDC predicts that shipments will exceed 10 million units during the first year of availability. This projected volume arrives despite an eye-watering retail price point that positions the hardware squarely in the ultra-luxury tier.
Popal added that a very elite set of consumers are being targeted here, who will be lining up to buy the device.
The hardware adopts a passport-style form factor, operating like a standard smartphone when closed before opening outward like a book to reveal a larger display.
Reversing a Downturn in the Foldables Sector
The market impact of Apple’s entry extends far beyond its own sales ledger. IDC notes that the company’s market debut will avert what was previously projected to be a double-digit percentage decline for the foldable sector this year.
With the new hardware entering the mix, IDC forecasts that the foldable market will grow by 12.6% this year, accelerating to an 18% increase the following year. By 2027, the firm projects that Apple will command 40% of total worldwide foldable shipments.
This expansion occurs against a punishing backdrop for the wider mobile industry. Overall smartphone shipments are projected to drop by a record 16.7% due to supply chain constraints and surging component costs, particularly for the memory chips required to power artificial intelligence features.
“The components that make AI possible are the same ones in short supply, and their cost is being passed straight through to the shelf. The era of the cheap smartphone has ended.”
Francisco Jeronimo, IDC
Hardware Design and Engineering Choices
Constructing a folding device presents unique structural engineering challenges. Reports indicate that Apple’s model could measure roughly 4.5mm thick when unfolded, prompting several distinct hardware adjustments.
Face ID is reportedly absent from the initial design. According to reports citing Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, Apple is preparing to use Touch ID integrated into the side button.
When closed, the device is expected to feature an outer screen of approximately 5.5 inches. Opening it yields a display near 7.8 inches, approaching the size of an iPad mini and enabling tablet-style app layouts.
Revenue Capture and Profit Pool Dominance
IDC estimates indicate that Apple could capture more than half of the category’s total dollar value.
Because a product category’s profits typically follow revenue rather than raw units, an average selling price significantly higher than the market baseline means competitors will be fighting over a shrinking pool of revenue. This dynamic leaves rival manufacturers scrambling to protect their margins through aggressive discounting or packed feature sets.
Official Reveal at Apple Park
Apple has officially confirmed its fall product showcase for September 9, 2026. Taking place at the Steve Jobs Theater under the tagline Surprise and Shine,
the presentation marks the first major product launch under CEO John Ternus.
The event is expected to feature the iPhone 18 Pro lineup alongside the anticipated foldable device.
