Finland’s President Alexander Stubb asserted on August 29, 2025, that Russia would not use nuclear weapons against Ukraine or attack NATO, citing intelligence and alliances as deterrents, while Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal warned of escalating hybrid threats in Europe.
Finland’s President Alexander Stubb delivered a clear message on August 29, stating that Russia would not resort to nuclear weapons against Ukraine or launch an attack on NATO, a claim backed by intelligence and strategic alliances. Firstly, I have intelligence. And secondly, we have a deterrent — and this deterrent is stronger than that of any other military power anywhere in the world,
Stubb told Germany’s Bild newspaper, emphasizing that any power testing NATO’s resolve would face “no sense.”
Stubb’s assertions centered on Russia’s limited options for escalation, arguing that Moscow’s military losses and domestic constraints make a second front or nuclear strike improbable. At the moment, Russia’s options for escalation are quite limited. The only thing Russia can still escalate with is mobilization,
he said, noting that further conscription would face political backlash in Russia.
Russia won't use nuclear weapons against Ukraine or attack
Stubb’s claims were grounded in specific intelligence assessments. He cited Russia’s unsustainable battlefield losses, stating that the country was losing around 30,000-35,000 troops a month and recruiting only around 27,000.
This imbalance, he argued, would prevent Moscow from opening a second front against another European country. So they have fewer and fewer soldiers in an increasingly complex situation,
he said. I simply cannot see them suddenly being able to mobilise forces for two fronts.
The Finnish leader highlighted China’s role in curbing Russian nuclear ambitions, citing a recent conversation with the Chinese foreign minister. This summer, the Chinese foreign minister visited me, and I brought up the subject. And he said, ‘We will never allow that to happen.’ And I believe that is a pretty effective deterrent,
Stubb said. However, no independent verification of this claim was provided in the sources.
Russian officials denied plans for new mobilization. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, speaking on August 25, accused Ukrainian authorities of ideologically destabilizing the situation by spreading reports about a possible new Russian mobilization. All of this is being planted by the Ukrainian authorities,
he said, adding that these are all fabricated stories that are deliberately being planted in the information space.
Finland's Stubb tells German newspaper Russia unlikely to risk
NATO’s strength and hybrid threats were emphasized by Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal, who spoke at a Kyiv summit on August 29. NATO is working well. Russia’s assessment of NATO’s power and strength is at a level where they know they should not attack,
Michal stated, while urging allies to prepare for cyber and information warfare. The Russians are doing everything possible to make everyone worry about them rather than Ukraine,
he added, framing the conflict as a broader struggle for European security.
Michal criticized Russia’s military strategy, noting that its cognitive warfare has weakened after strikes on key infrastructure in Russia, including ports and warehouses. He called for increased defense spending and support for Ukraine’s drone industry, arguing that Ukraine’s future lies in the European Union and NATO.
This aligns with Stubb’s emphasis on Ukraine as a best security guarantee against Russian aggression, though neither leader provided concrete details on how this support would materialize.
The Kyiv summit, attended by the leaders of Ukraine, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland, and Norway, also saw Sweden join online. Michal reiterated the need to maintain sanctions pressure on Russia, keep its assets frozen, and strengthen efforts against the “shadow fleet.” He emphasized that Ukraine’s future lies in the European Union and NATO
and called for continued support toward membership in both institutions.
Estonian Prime Minister Says NATO Deters a Direct Russian
Stubb’s comments contrasted with warnings from German officials, who assessed that Russia could attack a NATO country by 2029. If anyone has a crystal ball like that – that’s great. I simply see neither evidence nor facts to support it,
Stubb said, dismissing such projections as speculative. However, the lack of transparency from Moscow leaves room for conflicting interpretations, with no definitive timeline for Russia’s next moves.
Both Stubb and Michal underscored Ukraine’s strategic importance. We must understand – you in Germany and we in Finland – that Ukraine is the best security guarantee we have against Russia. If Ukraine loses, we lose,
Stubb said. Michal echoed this sentiment, stating that Ukraine’s future lies in the European Union and NATO,
while stressing the need to prevent Moscow from shifting its focus to Europe’s “grey zone.”
Despite the consensus on NATO’s deterrence, uncertainties remain. Stubb’s claim about China’s effective deterrent lacks independent corroboration, while Michal’s focus on hybrid threats contrasts with the more direct military concerns raised by other analysts. Meanwhile, Russian officials continue to deny plans for new mobilization, though Stubb suggested Moscow’s record losses on the battlefield could force such a move by fall.
The sources reveal diverging perspectives on Russia’s intentions. While Stubb and Michal frame the threat as contained, German officials have previously warned of a potential Russian attack on NATO by 2029. Stubb’s dismissal of such projections highlights the tension between intelligence assessments and public statements, underscoring the complexity of the situation as European nations navigate the evolving conflict.
