Brussels prepares to unveil its new European Security Strategy amid mounting debate over how the continent must confront a permanent Russian threat, counter hybrid warfare, and navigate shifting transatlantic relations, drawing urgent strategic demands from policymakers across Central and Eastern Europe.
Europe’s security landscape is undergoing a profound transformation as policymakers confront the reality that traditional post-Cold War assumptions no longer apply. Ahead of the annual State of the European Union address, Brussels is expected to present its new European Security Strategy (ESS), prompting a continent-wide debate over deterrence, defense integration, and the preservation of open societies against rising authoritarian pressures.
The End of the Post-Cold War Era and the Return of Continental War
For decades following 1945, Western Europe lived in a state of durable peace supported by the post-war order, while the East endured Soviet domination. The collapse of the Soviet Union fostered a powerful conviction that trade, economic interdependence, and common institutions would make war impossible. Europe’s growing dependence on Russian hydrocarbons was interpreted as a bond of mutual interest rather than a strategic vulnerability.
That illusion shattered permanently when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, exposing deep structural weaknesses in energy and defense. As the outlet reported, the return of war to the continent forced Europeans to confront a stark reality: security can no longer rest solely on an automatic US guarantee or the celebrated peace dividend.
This shift has thrust Central and Eastern Europe from the periphery to the center of strategic planning. Countries bearing historical memories of Soviet occupation view the current conflict not as a regional crisis, but as a direct test of continental survival. Poland sees defending Ukraine as a forward line of defense for Central Europe, while the Baltic states warn that post-Soviet Russia has never stopped viewing its neighbourhood as a sphere of influence.
Shaping a Credible European Pillar and Defense Autonomy
As Brussels drafts the new security blueprint, international experts and institutional leaders are sharply divided over what the strategy can and should deliver. Max Bergmann, Director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), argues that the EU must focus on building a genuine European pillar capable of fighting and deterring Russia independently, noting that NATO has not and will not ever do that.
Others urge caution and institutional modesty. Ulrich Speck, a non-resident senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, contends that the EU should resist declaring itself the center of European defence, pointing out that key military players such as Britain, Turkey, and Ukraine remain outside the bloc.
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Meanwhile, Jan Truszczyński, former chief negotiator for Poland’s EU accession, emphasizes that the strategy must remain clear-eyed about Russia as the permanent principal threat. Truszczyński argues that the document must establish a self-standing capability to address all hybrid, conventional, and nuclear risks, backed by the EU’s Readiness 2030 goal, the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument, and projects like the European Sky Shield Initiative.
Practical delivery remains the central test for Brussels. Ivan Us, a Future of Ukraine Fellow at Visegrad Insight and senior consultant at the Foreign Policy Center of the National Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of Ukraine, asserts that the ESS would be credible only if it stays inside what Brussels actually controls, encompassing the single market, industrial policy, transport corridors, dual-use infrastructure, undersea cable protection, and economic de-risking.
Beyond military hardware and territorial defense, security analysts and political leaders emphasize that the struggle for Europe’s future is fundamentally political. During the London Security Conference hosted by Liberal International at the National Liberal Club, participants examined how technological shifts, Black Sea vulnerabilities, and Arctic competition intersect with the defense of democratic institutions.
Photo: ALDE Party
“In this new global context, where major powers are dramatically challenging the foreign policy consensus of recent decades, collaboration among the ‘middle powers’ discussed by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney can no longer be purely economic. An integrated defense strategy stretching from the Black Sea to the Arctic and the Atlantic is absolutely indispensable.”
Photo: regard-est.com
Dan Barna, ALDE Party Vice-President
For Ed Davey, President of ALDE Party member Liberal Democrats, the challenge represents the defining fight of our political generation, framing the choice between open societies and authoritarianism.
“One path is to shrink and close ourselves off. To hand over our economies, security and democratic institutions to men who tell us that strength means cruelty, and safety means walls. The other path is the one liberals have always believed in: that we are stronger together than alone. That open societies will always beat closed ones.”
Ed Davey, President of ALDE Party member Liberal Democrats
Front-Line Priorities and the Road Ahead
As European policymakers finalize their strategic posture, voices from the front lines demand direct influence over regional security architecture. Yevheniia Kravchuk, an MP and ALDE Party Vice-President, insists that Europe’s response must be strategic, incorporating sustained security presences, maritime and air defense investments, and critical infrastructure protection.
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“Europe’s response must be strategic: a stronger and sustained security presence in the region, investment in maritime and air defence capabilities, protection of critical infrastructure and freedom of navigation and deeper cooperation with regional partners.”
Yevheniia Kravchuk, ALDE Party Vice-President and MP
With the annual State of the European Union address approaching, all eyes turn to Brussels to see whether the new European Security Strategy will bridge the gap between regional threat perceptions and institutional capability, or succumb to lowest-common-denominator compromises.
