A year after Charlie Kirk’s assassination, Turning Point USA has expanded its campus presence, but Trump’s appeal to young voters has waned, with 32% approval among men aged 18–29 in August 2026, down from 43% in February 2025, as economic pressures and the Iran war strain GOP support.
One year after conservative activist Charlie Kirk’s assassination at Utah Valley University, his organization, Turning Point USA (TPUSA), has grown significantly, yet the political landscape for young Republicans remains fraught. Kirk, a central figure in mobilizing Generation Z and millennial conservatives, died on September 10, 2025, during a campus debate. His death catalyzed both expansion and internal strife within the movement, as well as shifting dynamics in Republican support among young voters.
TPUSA’s Expansion Amid Political Shifts
TPUSA has seen explosive growth since Kirk’s death, with over 3,500 high school chapters and 1,500 college chapters as of September 2026, representing a 180% and 60% increase respectively, according to the organization. This expansion has been accompanied by heightened political activity, including a memorial event at Utah Valley University and a dedication at the Republican Party’s first-ever midterm convention in Dallas, Texas, where President Donald Trump honored Kirk as a “martyr” and urged his followers to honor his legacy at the polls in November.
However, this growth contrasts with declining support for Trump among young voters. A Reuters-Ipsos poll cited by Al Jazeera noted that only 32% of men aged 18–29 approved of Trump’s performance in August 2026, down from 43% in February 2025. The decline follows a broader trend of dissatisfaction with the GOP, driven by economic concerns and the U.S.-Israel war against Iran. A Harvard Youth Poll found that half of Americans aged 18–29 reported inflation affecting them “a lot,” while 45% struggled with financial insecurity, according to Al Jazeera. The war in Iran has also added an average of $750 in household expenses, per Moody’s Analytics.
Fractures Within the Movement
Despite its growth, TPUSA faces internal challenges. Young conservatives like Dino Fantegrossi, a former chapter leader at the University of Arkansas, describe the organization as a movement facing questions about its future,
with one that has yet to fully coalesce around a new leader and that is grappling with the same issue divides causing friction within the Republican Party more broadly.
Fantegrossi left TPUSA in 2025 to form Young American Revival, a group he says aims to be “a positive vehicle for students to take out their frustrations in a manner that actually brings about change within our state.”
He criticized TPUSA for losing the grassroots connection that Kirk once maintained, stating, There’s no one else that was quite at that level of plugged in.
Erika Kirk, Charlie’s widow and TPUSA’s CEO, has sought to maintain momentum, declaring that her husband’s mission was powerful before, you have no idea
what his death unleashed. Yet the organization’s spokesman, Andrew Kolvet, acknowledged a confluence of challenges
while emphasizing that TPUSA is still growing in nearly every conceivable way.
The group’s 2025-2026 school year saw over a million student participants, but critics argue the movement lacks a clear successor to Kirk’s influence.
Trump’s Waning Support and Economic Concerns
Trump’s declining support among young voters underscores broader Republican struggles. While he won 46% of young men’s votes in the 2024 election, down from 36% in 2020, his approval has continued to slip. A Tufts Center analysis of AP VoteCast data showed that 52% of young voters supported Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024, compared to Trump’s 46%. Economic anxieties, including inflation and rising energy costs, have further eroded his appeal.
TPUSA’s focus on economic issues has not resonated uniformly. A YouGov-Economist poll cited by Al Jazeera found that only 16% of young people supported U.S. military action in Iran, highlighting tensions within the organization. Kirk’s death also intensified the Trump administration’s crackdown on domestic terrorist organisations
, including Antifa, but these measures have not reversed the GOP’s decline among younger demographics.
The Search for a New Leader
As TPUSA seeks to fill the void left by Kirk, J.D. Vance has emerged as a potential political successor. Erika Kirk publicly endorsed Vance in December 2025, stating, We’re going to get my husband’s friend J.D. Vance elected for ’48 [sic] in the most resounding way possible.
Vance, who maintained close ties with Kirk, has become a focal point for the movement’s 2028 presidential ambitions. However, young voters remain divided, with some expressing skepticism about his alignment with Kirk’s vision.
TPUSA’s operations chief, Tyler Bowyer, has outlined plans to bolster Vance’s candidacy in key states like Nevada and New Hampshire. Yet the movement’s ability to translate campus activism into electoral success remains uncertain. As one student noted, They’re not really sure how to channel their frustrations, and that oftentimes — when it’s not put in check or pointed in a positive direction — can manifest itself in some very nasty ways.
What Comes Next for Young Voters and the GOP
The November 2026 midterm elections will test whether TPUSA’s expansion can counteract Trump’s waning appeal. With 32% of young men disapproving of Trump and economic issues dominating voter concerns, the GOP faces a critical juncture. TPUSA’s efforts to align with Vance and address youth frustrations may determine its relevance in the coming years.
For now, the movement remains a fragmented yet resilient force. As Kirk’s widow put it, You have no idea what you’ve just unleashed across this entire country, and this world.
Whether that energy translates into political power or further division remains to be seen.
