A lightning offensive by Iran-backed Houthi fighters has reached the Red Sea island of Perim and the port of Mokha, threatening the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The advance compounds a growing crisis for U.S. President Donald Trump as the war with Iran enters its seventh month and global energy markets face severe disruption.
A fast-moving military campaign along Yemen’s coastline has thrust the Iran-aligned Houthi movement into a position to potentially choke off one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors. The militants captured the port city of Mokha on a Thursday and advanced to the island of Perim—also known as Mayun—situated directly in the middle of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between Yemen and Africa, according to reports detailed by international news wires. This strategic maneuver places the group at the gateway of the Red Sea, threatening roughly 7% of global petroleum supplies and about 12% of global trade.
The Collapse of Alternative Oil Routes and Saudi Pressures
The seizure of the strait strikes directly at an improvised energy lifeline used by Saudi Arabia. Following Iranian attacks and threats that effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula, Saudi exporters shifted much of their crude transportation toward Red Sea ports, piping oil across the desert to Yanbu for transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait toward Asia.
However, Houthi targeting of tankers has largely undone that alternative. In August, Saudi Red Sea oil loadings fell sharply from 3.8 million barrels per day to 2.2 million barrels per day, driving overall Saudi supply down by 2.3 million barrels per day to 6 million barrels—the lowest level recorded in three decades, as cited in data from the International Energy Agency.
To bypass the immediate danger zone, Saudi tankers have increasingly turned northwest toward the Suez Canal. For tankers too large for the canal, operators offload crude at Ain Sokhna in Egypt, piping it to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean coast for reloading. While this workaround enables Riyadh to redirect up to 3 million barrels daily, it imposes staggering delays. Victoria Grabenwöger, a senior research analyst at energy data firm Kpler, pointed out that the detour more than doubles transit times to Asian destinations like South Korea from 24 days to 54 days.
Strategic Leverage and Diplomatic Appeals to Washington
The unfolding offensive has intensified pressure on the United States as President Donald Trump deals with record-low approval ratings and climbing gasoline prices that threaten Republican prospects in the upcoming November midterm elections.
Amid the escalation, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, phoned President Trump to request U.S. military help fighting the Houthis, according to sources cited in reporting from Reuters. Washington declined direct involvement for the moment, promising intelligence support instead. President Trump subsequently confirmed the conversation, noting that the Houthis had also contacted his administration to ask that the U.S. refrain from entering the fight directly.
A senior Trump administration official declined to address specific questions regarding military options, stating that U.S. policy centers on securing freedom of navigation while empowering regional partners to manage local security challenges.
The Double Choke Point Dilemma for Global Trade
With Tehran already disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly a fifth of global oil supplies flowed prior to the conflict—potential Houthi control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait hands Iran leverage over international energy transit.
That dual control places both primary petroleum arteries under immediate threat. Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, noted that while Saudi and Israeli shipping already face high risk profiles, the rapid Houthi advance leaves open the question of whether the group will expand its threats if subjected to further attacks.
Military Overextension and the Choices Ahead
For the White House, confronting the Houthi advance presents an acute dilemma. Committing naval and aerial assets to push back the insurgents would require scarce air-defense munitions and stretch an already burdened U.S. military. Analysts observe that any direct campaign would effectively terminate a deal struck last year, wherein the U.S. would stop bombing the group in exchange for a halt to strikes on Red Sea shipping.
Iran’s foreign ministry issued a statement calling for dialogue and asserting that the conflict in Yemen cannot be resolved via blockade or military action, though the ministry did not address Tehran’s own role. Meanwhile, as military confrontations persist across both key Middle Eastern waterways, the administration faces a narrowing window to stabilize energy prices and secure maritime commerce before voters head to the polls.
