President Donald Trump predicted on September 12, 2026, that the war in Iran will end shortly after the November midterm elections, bringing sharp declines in global energy prices. The forecast comes as fighting enters its seventh month, driving up U.S. gasoline and diesel costs and straining strategic petroleum reserves.
Trump Forecasts Swift End to Iran Conflict Following Midterms
President Donald Trump asserted during a trip to Ireland that the military campaign in Iran will likely end soon after November’s mid-term elections, offering a specific timeline that contrasts sharply with private discussions held among his top administration officials.
I think very soon, I think it’ll be right after the mid-terms, actually,
Trump told reporters at the Deerfield Residence in Dublin, predicting that oil will come tumbling down when that happens.
That public optimism stands in direct contrast to warnings raised inside the Oval Office and Situation Room. According to U.S. officials, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and other top advisers have privately informed the president that the Iran war could drag on through the remainder of his term, potentially extending past Inauguration Day in January 2029 as Tehran continues to resist U.S. military blockades.
Rising Energy Costs and the Impact on Consumers
The protracted conflict has placed severe upward pressure on global petroleum markets and American household budgets. International Brent crude oil futures settled down 2.8% at $104.61 a barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 2.4% to settle at $100.05 per barrel, notching sharp weekly gains after soaring above $100 a barrel for the first time in months.
Domestic fuel prices have climbed significantly since hostilities began. Regular gasoline averaged $4.22 per gallon, ticking up 7 cents overnight and sitting more than a dollar above the cost recorded at the same point last year, according to the AAA motor club.
Real-time estimates from Brown University’s Watson School of International and Public Affairs indicate that U.S. consumers have paid roughly $100 billion more for gasoline and diesel since the war began, averaging about $760 per household. In response to the supply crunch, the Environmental Protection Agency issued a waiver allowing the transition to cheaper winter-blend gasoline on September 1, moving the schedule up by 15 days.
Regional Escalation and Strait of Hormuz Disruptions
The conflict has severely restricted the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage carrying about 20% of the world’s petroleum prior to the outbreak of hostilities.
Tensions escalated further after the U.S. military reported striking five Iranian oil tankers in response to attempted missile attacks on a Navy warship.
Political Stakes and Tehran’s Defiant Stance
With midterm elections set for November 3, the war has become a central vulnerability for Republicans seeking to maintain their narrow congressional majorities. A Reuters/Ipsos survey placed Trump’s approval rating at 33 percent, driven downward largely by the conflict and inflation, according to recent polling data.
Addressing the Republican midterm convention at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Trump defended the military intervention as essential to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, prompting a loud No!
from the crowd when asked if Tehran should possess such arms. Trump maintained that Iran is holding out in hopes of a Democratic victory.
“They’re hanging out for dear life, hoping that we lose, so they can deal with dumb, weak Democrats and they can have their nuclear bomb. But we’re not going to let that happen.”
President Donald Trump, Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas
Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian dismissed the pressure during an appearance in New Delhi alongside the BRICS Summit, stating that his country has successfully stood against Israel and the U.S. and will not surrender to what he termed bullying arrogance.
