Iran-backed Houthi forces have gained control of Yemen’s Bab el-Mandab Strait following a strategic government withdrawal. The advance threatens a maritime route handling roughly ten percent of global oil and eight percent of LNG.
Strategic Gains at Bab el-Mandab
The Houthi offensive in Yemen has captured towns along the southern Red Sea coast and secured control of the Bab el-Mandab Strait. The shift occurred after forces loyal to Yemen’s internationally recognized government withdrew from the strategic island of Perim, also known as Mayyun. The island sits directly in the middle of the southern entrance to the vital maritime corridor.
Geography makes the strait uniquely vulnerable to disruption. While the northern Red Sea near Hodeidah spans up to 260 kilometers, the Bab el-Mandab Strait narrows to just 11 miles. By comparison, the Strait of Hormuz is roughly 34 miles wide. Israeli security officials noted that controlling or disrupting shipping is considerably easier in the narrower Bab el-Mandab corridor, where sophisticated radar is not required to spot vessels.
Vessels can be observed visually from the shore, exposing them to Kornet anti-tank guided missiles and explosive-laden attack boats. Israeli defense officials see the situation as potentially dangerous for global trade and national security, granting the Houthis precise targeting capabilities over a critical trade route.
Global Economic Fallout and Energy Markets
The maritime takeover carries immediate economic consequences. According to OPEC data cited by Globes, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production dropped significantly to 6.24 million barrels per day amid ongoing conflict and U.S. pressure on Iran.
That 23 percent drop in production from the cartel’s largest producer pushed international benchmark Brent crude back toward the 110 dollar per barrel mark for the first time in two months. Combined with supply chain disruptions, Iran and its regional allies have established direct leverage over global energy markets.
The Bab el-Mandab Strait accounts for approximately 10 percent of international oil trade and 8 percent of global liquefied natural gas shipments. When combined with the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran controls roughly 25 percent of oil trade and 20 percent of LNG traffic, Tehran now exerts influence over roughly 35 percent of global oil and 28 percent of global LNG transit.
The Shipping Alternative and Regional Pressures
Vessels bypassing the Bab el-Mandab Strait on Asia-to-Europe shipping routes face significant delays. Diverting around the Cape of Good Hope adds at least two weeks to transit times. Previous Red Sea disruptions during the Swords of Iron conflict caused even longer delays due to vessel shortages, adding millions of dollars per voyage in fuel, crew salaries, and insurance costs.
The disruption also impacts consumer markets directly. In the United States, the national average price for a gallon of diesel has surpassed 6 dollars, driven by sustained global energy pressures.
Behind closed doors, Israeli officials are criticizing a collapse of deterrence, questioning why Saudi Arabia and other regional actors have mounted little resistance against the Houthi advance. Axios reported that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called U.S. President Donald Trump twice to request U.S. strikes against the Houthis, though the request was initially rejected.
Israeli Naval Adjustments and U.S. Stance
In response to the shifting Red Sea threat, the Israel Defense Forces adjusted its readiness to protect strategic maritime assets and preserve freedom of navigation. Navy commander Vice Adm. Eyal Harel ordered increased command-and-control readiness and reinforced naval forces at sea to prevent surprises.
Israel imports roughly 33 percent of its non-diamond goods from Asia, with 99 percent of imports arriving by sea, leaving the economy exposed to Red Sea disruptions. While Israeli officials view the situation with concern, the defense establishment does not plan to intervene unless Israel faces a direct attack.
Meanwhile, the U.S. administration has avoided direct military escalation ahead of midterm elections.
Analysts note that intervention remains possible if the economic fallout on American consumers grows severe enough to alter Washington’s calculus before November.
