Sweden’s parliamentary election remains exceptionally close as the left-wing opposition bloc holds a narrow lead with more than 90% of ballots counted. Former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s alliance leads incumbent Ulf Kristersson’s right-wing coalition, though final results hinge on advance votes and ballots from abroad.
Sweden’s political future hung in the balance as an unusually tight electoral race unfolded. Only about 20,000 votes separated the competing political factions, according to forecasts by public broadcaster SVT, leaving the final composition of the Riksdag uncertain as election night turned into early morning.
A Razor-Thin Parliament and the Left-Wing Lead
With more than 90% of ballots tallied on Sunday night, the electoral authority reported that Andersson’s Social Democrats were expected to win 176 seats in the 349-seat parliament. That figure would put the left-wing alliance just past the threshold needed to govern, though separate exit forecasts placed the combined left bloc at 175 seats compared to 174 seats for the right-wing bloc.
According to an exit poll published Sunday evening, the Social Democrats, Green Party, Left Party, and Center Party secured a combined 51.3% of the votes, compared with 46.8% for the Moderate Party, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Sweden Democrats.
Acknowledging the exceptionally narrow margins, Andersson addressed supporters early Monday morning.
“it looks like it will be very close. We Social Democrats will always be ready to assume responsibility for the result… For now, we are in the lead. And if that is confirmed, Sweden will have a new government,”
Magdalena Andersson, Social Democrats leader, via dw.com
While the center-left coalition claimed the upper hand in seat projections, the Social Democrats faced a historic low in raw vote share. The party was on course to win 28% of the vote—or 27.6% according to exit polls—marking a decline from the 30.3% secured in the 2022 parliamentary election and representing the party’s worst result in over a century.
Right-Wing Alliance and the Sweden Democrats’ Setback
Incumbent Ulf Kristersson’s right-wing alliance, which includes the Moderate Party, the Christian Democrats, the Liberals, and the Sweden Democrats, was projected to win 173 seats by electoral authorities, or 174 seats in SVT’s forecast. Kristersson’s campaign focused heavily on his government’s record of reducing violent and organized crime while tightening immigration restrictions.
Despite the right’s competitive standing, the election’s major surprise was the underwhelming performance of the Sweden Democrats. Entering the contest hoping to enter government for the first time since the party’s foundation in 2010, the anti-immigrant party lost support for the first time.
The party captured 17.9% of the vote—or 17.2% in exit poll metrics, compared to 17.7% in 2022—marking a drop of more than three percentage points from the 20.5% it achieved in the previous election. Party leader Jimmie Akesson acknowledged the reversal while speaking to supporters in Stockholm.
“it’s obvious that we’ve lost a few percentage points compared with our result four years ago.”
Jimmie Akesson, Sweden Democrats leader, via dw.com
Unlike political walls seen in other European nations like Germany, Kristersson had promised the Sweden Democrats key government posts—including the migration ministry, with party leader Jimmie Akesson set to be given the role—if his alliance secured victory.
Broader Shifts Across Smaller Parties
Beyond the two main blocs, several smaller parties experienced notable shifts compared to the previous election cycle. The Left Party emerged as Sweden’s fourth-largest party, projected to reach 8.2%, an increase from 6.8% in 2022. The Center Party also gained ground, rising to 7.2% from 6.7% four years prior.
On the right, the Christian Democrats advanced to 6.2% from 5.3%, while the Liberals maintained their position at 5.4%, safely clearing Sweden’s 4% parliamentary threshold. Voter engagement remained robust across the nation, with turnout exceeding 80% among the eligible voters in a country of 10.6 million people. Approximately half of all ballots were cast in advance.
Waiting on the Final Count
Because the vote margins remain razor-thin, neither bloc can claim certain victory. Kristersson stated that he would respect Andersson’s bid to form a left-wing coalition government, noting that he would reach out to other party leaders for potential coalition talks.
“The voters have had their say, but we still don’t have a final result. Which government will lead Sweden in the coming years is still an open question, and we will do everything we can to ensure that this government will be the very best for our country,”
Ulf Kristersson, incumbent, via dw.com
Definitive results will remain unavailable until election authorities finish counting early votes and ballots cast from abroad. Officials indicated that the final outcome will be confirmed on Wednesday or Thursday.
