Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have advanced along the Red Sea coast in a major territorial offensive, seizing key islands near the Bab el-Mandeb strait and striking Saudi energy facilities with drones and missiles. The escalation has disrupted regional oil supplies and pushed global fuel prices sharply higher amid ongoing Middle East conflict.
Red Sea Offensive and Strategic Land Grab
A week after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels stormed down the Red Sea coast, their biggest land grab in years has reignited the country’s 12-year civil war. The offensive has pushed up global fuel prices and granted Iran an additional source of leverage as the United States works to loosen Tehran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula.
The rebels captured the Red Sea port city of Mokha before taking several islands near the narrow Bab el-Mandeb strait, through which some 12 per cent of world trade passes in peacetime. The captured territory places Houthi forces just 32 kilometres from Djibouti, a small African nation hosting military bases operated by the United States and other powers.
The conflict’s expansion has forced approximately 125,000 Yemenis to flee their homes, compounding a humanitarian crisis in a war that has already killed over 150,000 people. Heavy fighting continues in and around Marib, a central city in an oil-rich province that serves as a military hub for Saudi-backed forces, alongside ongoing front lines in Taiz.
“The capturing of Mokha and the islands in the Bab el-Mandeb strait allows the Houthis to ‘harass shipping more easily’, said April Longley Alley from the Washington Institute. ‘It also establishes them as the power broker in this critical waterway.'”April Longley Alley, Washington Institute
Attacks on Saudi Oil Infrastructure and Pipelines
Beyond coastal advances, Houthi forces have targeted Saudi oil installations with missile and drone strikes. Houthi rebels launched attacks into southern Saudi Arabia, striking an airbase in Khamis Mushait as well as state oil company assets in Abha, Najran, and Jazan. NASA satellite imagery showed thick black smoke over the Jazan refinery and a white smoke column rising from an Abha oil distribution centre.
Saudi authorities reported blazes at the sites and confirmed that women and children were among 73 people injured in the strikes, which rank among the largest assaults on the kingdom since the United States and Israel launched their war against Iran in February.
Concurrently, an attack on Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline—blamed on Iran-backed militias in Iraq—has restricted Persian Gulf crude exports. The pipeline spans roughly 745 miles from processing facilities near Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea, carrying between 4 million and 5 million barrels per day of crude oil while bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The market is moving up on the East-West pipeline closure in Saudi Arabia which is simply more bad news for consumers.
Andy Lipow, Lipow Oil Associates
Global Market Shocks and Refining Constraints
The pipeline closure and Red Sea shipping threats have intensified pressure on international energy markets. According to AAA data cited in market reports, U.S. gas prices reached $4.31 a gallon and diesel hit $6.23 a gallon, while domestic oil futures traded at $103 per barrel on the West Texas Index. Benchmark Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed toward the $100-a-barrel threshold.
Industry analysts note that North American and European refineries are operating at maximum capacity. However, missile and drone damage across the Middle East and Russia are crimping about 2 million barrels per day of diesel supply, representing 8 per cent of global demand.
Regional Diplomacy and the U.S. Stance
The United States, which previously conducted military strikes against the Houthis under the Biden and Trump administrations, has maintained a limited direct posture during the current escalation. Meanwhile, Houthi officials maintain that their military operations are focused specifically on Saudi-linked assets.
“At the moment their focus is on Saudi-linked shipping,” said Valentin d’Hauthuille, a Middle East analyst at ACLED, a conflict monitor. But they might “extend the criteria according to which vessels are assessed to be Saudi-linked to increase pressure on both Saudi and the global economy,” he said. Valentin d’Hauthuille, ACLED
Shipping Traffic Fluctuations in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Commercial maritime operations through the Bab el-Mandeb strait have experienced noticeable volatility in response to the rebel advance. Shipping firm Windward recorded a drop in daily transits through the chokepoint from 35 before the Houthi advance down to 25 immediately afterward, before rebounding to 45 transits on Sunday.
Despite the temporary recovery in vessel counts, analysts warn that the Houthis retain the capability to broaden their targeting criteria beyond Saudi oil tankers. During past operations in the Red Sea, the group engaged vessels with no known connection to regional conflicts, leaving international supply chains vulnerable to further strategic shifts.