As Russia holds a tightly controlled parliamentary vote from September 18 to 20, President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating has slipped to 66.9% amid growing war fatigue, intensive Ukrainian drone strikes, and a political landscape stripped of meaningful opposition.
Russia is heading to the ballot box for a three-day parliamentary election to choose a new State Duma, with the vote running from Friday through Sunday. Yet, the outcome of the election is all but settled. Vladimir Putin’s ruling party, United Russia, is widely expected to extend a legislative dominance it has maintained for 23 years. The contest unfolds alongside a handful of nominal opposition parties that reliably vote with the Kremlin on major policy issues, operating within what political analyst Farida Rustamova termed systemic opposition
.
Despite the predictable trajectory of the polls, the political climate surrounding the vote is markedly different from previous cycles. This marks the first State Duma election since the launch of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Once viewed by many citizens as a distant foreign conflict, the war now intrudes directly into the daily routines and domestic stability of ordinary Russians.
War Fatigue and Slipped Approval Ratings Ahead of the Vote
Domestic strain is increasingly visible in public opinion polling. The state-run Russian Public Opinion Research Center, known as VTsIOM, reported that Putin’s approval rating dropped to 66.9% in a survey conducted from August 24 to 30, marking a 0.8 percentage point decline from the previous week. Trust in the president measured 72.2%, a slight uptick of 0.2 percentage points. VTsIOM noted that its nationwide telephone and in-person survey of 1,600 adults carried a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. These figures follow a volatile summer that saw approval dip to 65.1% in early July, while a separate Kremlin-linked polling organization, The Public Opinion Foundation, recorded a steeper weekly decline of 5 percentage points to 66% during the same month.
Independent pollsters have captured similar friction. An independent Levada Center survey of 1,600 Russian adults conducted between August 18 and 28 found that a majority of respondents favored moving toward peace negotiations, while only 31% backed the continuation of military operations. Furthermore, a record 55% of those surveyed expected the fighting to persist for more than another year, and 61% reported that the war had directly impacted them or their families.
“We’ve seen support for Putin waning, albeit marginally, but it shows that his critical decisions in the war are forcing pollsters to show the active decline.”
Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia team lead at the Institute for the Study of War
Meanwhile, Estonian intelligence chief Kaupo Rosin observed that internal pressure on the Russian leadership appears to be mounting. There are certainly voices which express that he should keep going, but I think the voices which, let’s say, urge [him] to maybe reconsider the situation are becoming stronger,
Rosin said.
Drone Strikes, Economic Strain, and a Lifeless Political Campaign
The psychological and physical weight of the conflict has been exacerbated by an intensified long-range drone campaign originating from Ukraine. According to Russian Defense Ministry figures compiled by The Associated Press, more than 43,300 Ukrainian drones were intercepted over Russia and Russian-occupied Crimea between June and August. This figure represents nearly six times the approximately 7,700 drone interceptions reported during the identical period in 2025. The strikes have targeted oil refineries, factories, and logistics hubs, leading to localized gasoline shortages, long lines at filling stations, and disruptions at regional airports.
This tense security environment has coincided with an exceptionally subdued parliamentary campaign. Observers note that candidates have largely avoided active campaigning, with televised debates occasionally playing out in half-empty studios. Rustamova described the atmosphere by stating, In most elections, candidates compete for attention. In Russia this year, many are doing the opposite,
adding that no one wants to come into the spotlight or discuss anything sensitive.
An anonymous source close to the Kremlin explained the strategy to The Guardian: The Kremlin is deliberately keeping the election low-key, as greater interest would not benefit them. They don’t want to discuss difficult issues and just [want to] get it over with.
By muting public engagement, Moscow aimed to suppress turnout among critical or independent voters while mobilizing its core base.
Systemic Opposition, Exclusions, and the Quest for Legitimacy
The authorities have simultaneously narrowed the political spectrum. In August, Russia’s Supreme Court removed the anti-war Yabloko party from the federal ballot. The exclusion eliminated the last remaining political organization openly challenging the invasion. Observers noted that authorities likely acted after internal polling indicated unexpectedly broad support for an explicit anti-war platform, prompting officials to eliminate the risk of an unscripted electoral outcome.
With genuine anti-war voices barred, the remaining opposition consists strictly of systemic parties like the Communists and the far-right Liberal Democrats. These groups are permitted marginal criticism but reliably align with United Russia on core state priorities, serving historically as a safety valve for public discontent.
Vladimir Gelman, a professor of Russian politics at the University of Helsinki, emphasized the core purpose of the exercise, pointing out to The Guardian that even though these elections are neither free nor fair, they are still the only source of legitimacy
for the ruling apparatus.
In a televised address ahead of the vote, Putin directly tied voter participation to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, urging the public to demonstrate solidarity. Your choice and your will will once again demonstrate that millions of people stand behind our soldiers, that we are a united people bound together by shared values, historical memory and love for our homeland,
Putin stated.
While John Hardie of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies noted that there is a strong desire to end the war, but it’s not likely that this trend will lead to major unrest or a palace coup, the convergence of slipping public approval numbers, steady economic friction from drone strikes, and a tightly managed election highlights the complex domestic tightrope the Kremlin continues to walk as the conflict grinds onward.