Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has pledged to complete the disarmament of Iran-backed militias by June 30, 2027, outlining a phased transition intended to bring armed groups under state control amid regional tensions and ongoing economic fallout.
The Phased Disarmament Timeline and Strategy
The newly outlined roadmap centers on a structured sequence designed to ease friction between Baghdad and powerful armed factions. According to reporting from The New York Times, the process begins with an initial 90-day window. During this period, the militias are expected to halt attacks while receiving formal assurances that they will not be targeted by U.S. forces.
Following that initial grace period, the groups would gradually surrender their weaponry. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi stressed that powerful factions resisting the transition must stop operating as independent armed units. Individual members would instead be integrated into Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), while groups retaining their militia status past the deadline face designation as outlaws.
Shifting Deadlines and Hardline Resistance
Baghdad’s approach to the transition has encountered significant internal friction. The government initially pointed to September 30 as the definitive target date for armed groups to surrender their weapons—a timeline closely tied to the scheduled completion of the U.S.-led coalition’s military mission in Iraq. Government spokesperson Haidar al-Aboudi warned in June that any weaponry remaining outside state control after that date would trigger legal action.
That absolute stance has since softened. Security adviser Qasim al-Araji clarified that the September 30 date primarily governs the coalition’s departure, noting that broader discussions on disengaging militias would start around that milestone. Meanwhile, Communications Minister Mustafa Sanad suggested the complex issue could not realistically be resolved by a rigid calendar date.
Resistance from powerful factions remains the primary roadblock. A report by Rudaw citing three sources familiar with negotiations revealed that five Tehran-aligned factions rejected full disarmament. Instead, groups including Kataib Hezbollah, Sayyid al-Shuhada, and Harakat al-Nujaba proposed a two-year freeze on their weapons and military activities while maintaining their separate organizational structures.
Legislative Avenues and Political Realities
Faced with powerful armed networks, Baghdad has opted for political integration over direct military confrontation. Zaidi has explicitly ruled out an armed campaign against the factions, leaving the state reliant on legislation, negotiations, and gradual absorption into official security apparatuses.
Parliament is currently advancing a Service and Retirement Law for the PMF to establish a legal framework for the organization and its personnel. First Deputy Speaker Adnan Faihan noted that the legislation is vital for organizing state control over weapons while protecting the rights of PMF personnel. The parliamentary Security and Defense Committee confirmed that the government would soon submit the draft law for formal enactment.
External Pressures and Economic Toll
The resistance from hardline groups followed visits to Iraq by senior Iranian officials, including IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Sources cited by Rudaw note that these visits influenced the factions to pivot away from immediate integration and toward their proposed two-year freeze.
Beyond internal security concerns, the standoff unfolds against a backdrop of severe economic strain. Zaidi reported that Iraq had lost around $60 billion in revenue since the onset of the Iran-U.S. conflict, adding that Tehran had actively prevented Iraqi oil tankers from navigating the Strait of Hormuz.
What Lies Ahead for State Security
As the September deadline approaches alongside the shifting U.S. coalition drawdown, Baghdad’s strategy hinges on whether parliamentary legislation can successfully draw militia personnel into legitimate state structures. With the Islamic Resistance in Iraq network encompassing roughly 50,000 fighters across multiple hardline factions—some equipped with long-range missiles—the government’s phased approach avoids immediate armed conflict but leaves the ultimate timeline for total state monopoly over weaponry extending well into 2027.